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#31
04-26-2007, 02:04 PM
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Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
This bet looks more to me like he's trying to get paid by 9x, which decided to get semifancy on the flop. Had the river blanked, meaning 5-7 and <5 no diamonds, I'd be much more inclined to call. After all, there's not much difference in calling this size of bet with Kx or a normal VB, whereas 9x snapcalls both. Without knowing Sbrubgy at all, I would think he knows this.
Oh and furthermore, given your flopaction, I don't think betting turn is a good idea holding Kx against a tricky player as he is. Then I'd much rahter check behind and valueraise river. - AB 
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#33
04-26-2007, 02:08 PM
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Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
Exactly.
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#34
04-26-2007, 02:11 PM
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Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
Whitelime's hand is basically faceup for sbrugby to see as everyone has mentioned. You have no real clue what he holds since there were a dozen draws available on the turn as well as big made hands and air. If he assumes that you're a thinking player, then how often does he expect you to pay him with Kx here? I think that if he puts you on that hand, he's gonna make a more realistic value bet that he is sure you'll pay since he's probably pretty sure of your hand.
My guess is that he flopped bottom 2 pair and got counterfitted on the river and you're good to go now.
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#35
04-26-2007, 02:15 PM
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Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
I would follow the usual mindset that "everyone always has it" here and fold.
I think you still need to c bet this flop a good amount of the time. A solid player isn't calling in the sb there with a ton of suited connectors, and in my experience from watching his videos and playing him, Aba is semi strict about not playing these suited connectors OOP. So its not like he connects with this flop more often than you do; I definitely like a c bet with air. -Jeff
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#36
04-26-2007, 02:17 PM
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Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
the whole "whitelimes hand is face up so aba will bluff" is imo wrong... at these stakes, guys are definitely going to be erring on the side of hero calls. basically every draw missed, so this is really easy for rugby to fake a missed draw, overbet knowing that whitelime is thinking "man i cant let these guys push me around".
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#37
04-26-2007, 02:27 PM
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Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
[ QUOTE ]
pokermonkey, first of all, i suck at nl. 2nd of all, why do you think aba would overbet here when whitelime pretty much at best can have AK here? You think he is trying to extract more value? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, exactly. He knows whitelime has a King and it's going to be hard for him to lay it down, so I'd think this is a value bet disguised as an overbet bluff. A pot-sized bet is almost more worrying because he's saying he can beat a King. [ QUOTE ] I may be wrong and aba only bluffs here 20% of the time, but i don't think that aba checks a set twice than puts in a more than pot c/r and than bets 1.5 pot on river. i would think aba would save this play for a tilting player or someone he has lots of history with. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe, but if whitelime has a flush draw on the flop, often he'll bet the draw. On the turn if whitelime doesn't have a King and aba bets, whitelime probably folds. Even if whitelime has a club draw, he probably bets it here. If he has neither flush draw, aba doesn't have to worry about getting outdrawn by the flush, and a bet on a 3-flush board on the river could be interpreted as a bluff and get called lightly. So I like aba's line if he did flop a set.
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#40
04-26-2007, 02:32 PM
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Re: 200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] With Aba's aggro image, I don't think he ever checks this board twice with a set... [/ QUOTE ] think a few levels higher [/ QUOTE ] QFT I think Aba is checking this turn with most of his range and almost always with sets and AA
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