200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed

[restrikt]

Not sure if this is mentioned yet, but since Whitelime doesn't normally play these stakes, that's a [censored] of a river bet for him to call.

[Eagles]

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i avoid spots like this vs solid aggros by betting the flop or checking behind again on the turn

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Why? I understand your logic of betting the flop but once whitelime checks why would he check behind again?

I'd also add that as played whitelime's hand is pretty faceup. I think Aba knows that KJ is basically the top of his range here which makes me think its a call. I mean this would be a very good line for Aba to take with any two. But then we get into a leveling war because Whitelime knows that Aba knows his hand looks like a weakish one pair hand etc.

[BigMac1082]

Would you consider this an example where making a weak bet on the turn to get a call from a weaker hand actually put you in a bad spot? If you bet a normal 2k like stinger said then it would be much easier to fold this. Since you feigned weakness with underbetting the turn, it would make me think aba is just trying to move me off my hand. My head hurts.

[Poker monkey]

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this is a very tricky spot as aba should know once you call the turn that you have minimum of a king.
Problem is that he knows that you can't have a set since most of the time your going to bet a set on this board.
Honestly his overbet looks like he is trying to push you off a king, he could have any 2. I think this is a great spot for him to over bet bluff. Especially since he knows your a good thinking player.

so i like a call.

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What % of the time is he bluffing here though? Has to be over 40% of the time to make the call profitable. Suspecting he might be bluffing and thinking this would be a good situation to do so isn't enough, he has to be doing it nearly half the time... and I think most of the time the overbet means big strength.

I'd also question whether this is actually a good bluffing spot, since bluffing is best when you think your opponent is weak, and here Brian knows whitelime has some sort of a hand and there's a good chance whitelime will call his ass.

[restrikt]

Anyone else surprised that Aba played this hand so tricky?

I think he normally loses a ton of value playing his hand this way....

[AAismyfriend]

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Not sure if this is mentioned yet, but since Whitelime doesn't normally play these stakes, that's a [censored] of a river bet for him to call.

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This is what I'm thinking and ABA definately knows this if he's ever read whitelime's CR blog. I vaguely remember reading something in his blog about him losing 35k one day and how much it sucked blablabla... So I think calling this is fine since it really looks like he's trying to push you off a K here.

[AAismyfriend]

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I'm not a high stakes player by any means, but I've watched sbrugby play quite a bit. I doubt very much that he's overbetting without a big hand here. 3 nines a the least, more likely a boat. He's not calling from the blind with a worse King, he probably checks the river with a marginal hand. You're obviously only beating a bluff, and you've repped a big hand so I don't think sbrugby is going to throw $30,000 away without a stronger one. (i.e. fold river.)

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I've seen ABA do this with air and big hands, the interesting thing about this hand is that ABA probably thinks whitelime is somewhat scared money in this game, and that's a hell of a river bet to call with just a K.

[restrikt]

Yeah, the problem I have with Aba's play is that he has to put Whitelime on exactly Kx for this play to have been profitable. If Whitelime does not have Kx, he prob checks behind turn, and Aba loses so much value by the river.

[whodaman]

pokermonkey,
first of all, i suck at nl.
2nd of all, why do you think aba would overbet here when whitelime pretty much at best can have AK here? You think he is trying to extract more value?
I may be wrong and aba only bluffs here 20% of the time, but i don't think that aba checks a set twice than puts in a more than pot c/r and than bets 1.5 pot on river.
i would think aba would save this play for a tilting player or someone he has lots of history with.

[PHiLLeDINGUE]

The only way to solve the problem here is to know what both players were thinking at the moment. I think pretty much everyone agree that your hand if face up been a Kx. And ABa knows that too. You probably know that Aba knows too, and he probably knows that you know that he know. So that's why it's so tricky... wat was eh thinking?

You realy have to interpret is over bet with all the above here, is he trying to push you of a K knowing that you know, or he knows that you know that he know so he's value betting because you'll see that as a "Iwant you to fold" and then call?

In both case I wouldn't get into that game with aba because you probably loose either way... but If I had to pick I would go for the fold!! odds are not good, you need to be right alot of the time here