2nd nuts 4 flush board - can i pay this off?

[lapoker17]

25/50 i think 5 handed 100bb effective. utg may be a little gambly, but he's playing a few tables with full stacks and hasn't done anything retarded yet. 10th hand or so at the table. he prob thinks i am ok/solid reg.

he raises utg to 175 folded to me in bb w A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and i just call.

flop A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (pot 370)

i ck, he bets 285, i call.

turn 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (pot 940)

i ck and he cks behind.

river 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (pot 940)

i bet 660 and he pretty quickly mashes bet pot and raises biggish to 2890 or something...

[deadmoney98]

Obviously this sucks, but I would probably call mainly because checking the turn with the Ace of spades seems non-standard.

[RandomUser]

I talk myself into a call, but I expect to lose over 50% of the time.

And you have 3rd nuts, since T8s is possible, but I doubt he raises that UTG.

I agree the turn line is a bit odd if he has the As, but if he has AsXx, he might not want to call a CRAI from a made flush on the turn.

[fsuplayer]

id fold pretty quick.

[lapoker17]

yeah sry - i knew it wasnt 2nd nuts when i was in the hand just not worth considering at 100bb. anyway, carry on.

[lwrunner103]

def. fold no way is he bluffing/Vbetting light enough for you to be good 1/3 of the time.

[fsuplayer]

its not even worth considering bc you could so easily have chk'd the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] twice and the fact that he instapotted it seals the deal.

[king_of_drafts]

[ QUOTE ]
its not even worth considering bc you could so easily have chk'd the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] twice and the fact that he instapotted it seals the deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

[lapoker17]

yeah i mean the river action and timing itself probably does overrule all else, but in everyone's experience is the type of player i loosely described more likely to ck the turn w Asxx (that he raised utg - so probably pretty good ace) or to bet it?

[kafkaFan1]

i don't think it's so clear, your bet size gives away a fair amount of information.