**** ALDS GAME 4 Tribe/Yanks (Byrd vs. Wang)****

[ProfessorBen]

[ QUOTE ]
Option A - Game 4: well rested Paul Byrd, Game 5 (if necessary): C.C. Sabathia on full rest, Fausto Carmona sitting and watching with Cleveland's season in the balance

Option B - Game 4: eventual Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia on 3 days rest, Game 5 (if necessary): Fausto Carmona on full rest

[/ QUOTE ]

This post isn't getting much love. The key to this is that Fausto gets to start on normal rest for Game 5 or not play at all. The decision would be closer if Game 4 and 5 were today and tomorrow, where you would be choosing to either start both players on short rest or pitching Sabathia at full strength on Game 5, but that's not the case.

[kyleb]

Pitching Byrd allows everyone to pitch on full rest in the ALCS, but that's the same logic that has only Joe Borowski pitching in the 9th with a lead of 3 runs or less: You have to get there first.

Sigh. I am really unhappy with this decision.

[ProfessorBen]

[ QUOTE ]
you don't want C.C. to theoretically pitch game one of the ALCS?

[/ QUOTE ]
Regardless of what happens, the ALCS starts Friday and Game 2 is Saturday. Game 3 is Monday, Game 4 is Tuesday, Game 5 is Thursday, Game 6 is Saturday and Game 7 is Sunday.

Option A, Situation 148%) The Indians pitch CC tonight and the Indians win Game 4. Fausto starts game 1 in Fenway and CC pitches game 2 on full rest. Fausto is potentially available to start 3 games.

Option A, Situation 226%) The Indians pitch CC tonight and the Indians lose Game 4. Fausto pitches Game 5 and they win Game 5. Westbrook starts game 1 at Fenway, CC pitches game 2, and Fausto pitches game 3. Both aces still likely get 2 starts, though 3 is now unlikely.

Option A, Situation 326%) The Indians pitch CC tonight and the Indians lose Game 4. They lose Game 5. LOL.

Option B, Situation 137%) The Indians pitch Paul Byrd tonight and win. Sabathia starts Game 1 at Fenway and Fausto starts Game 2. Sabathia is now potentially available to start 3 games.

Option B, Situation 232%) The Indians pitch Paul Byrd tonight and lose. They pitch CC in Game 5 and win. Fausto starts Game 1 in Fenway and Sabathia most likely starts Game 3(Monday) on short rest, Fausto starts Game 4(Tuesday) on normal rest.

Option B, Situation 331%) The Indians pitch DESIRE_TO_WIN tonight and lose. They pitch FATTY in Game 5 and lose. AROD shoves his [censored] down Eric Wedge's throat so he chokes while Brian Cashman and Joe Torre lick his balls and collect raises.

If you compare each situation, having CC "ready" for Game 1 only has a marginal value at best and is offset by the increased possibility of Situation 2 or 3. More importantly, the value gained in increased chances of winning THIS series is unmistakable and worth much more in comparison. "Pitching game 1" is FPS and esp. bad when the staff is built around 2 aces where either one could potentially start 3 games.

Edit: I looked at some lines for tomorrow and tried to estimate some percentages to back my claim. I think they are reasonable but even if Byrd's win % is as high as 43%, it still wouldn't change the crux of the argument.

[Matt Williams]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you don't want C.C. to theoretically pitch game one of the ALCS?

[/ QUOTE ]
Regardless of what happens, the ALCS starts Friday and Game 2 is Saturday. Game 3 is Monday, Game 4 is Tuesday, Game 5 is Thursday, Game 6 is Saturday and Game 7 is Sunday.

Option A, Situation 1: The Indians pitch CC tonight and the Indians win Game 4. Fausto starts game 1 in Fenway and CC pitches game 2 on full rest. Fausto is potentially available to start 3 games.

Option A, Situation 2: The Indians pitch CC tonight and the Indians lose Game 4. They win Game 5. Westbrook starts game 1 at Fenway, CC pitches game 2, and Fausto pitches game 3. Both aces still likely get 2 starts, though 3 is now unlikely.

Option A, Situation 3: The Indians pitch CC tonight and the Indians lose Game 4. They lose Game 5. LOL.

Option B, Situation 1: The Indians pitch Paul Byrd tonight and win. Sabathia starts Game 1 at Fenway and Fausto starts Game 2. Sabathia is now potentially available to start 3 games.

Option B, Situation 2: The Indians pitch Paul Byrd tonight and lose. They pitch CC in Game 5 and win. Fausto starts Game 1 in Fenway and Sabathia most likely starts Game 3(Monday) on short rest, Fausto starts Game 4(Tuesday) on normal rest.

Option B, Situation 3: The Indians pitch DESIRE_TO_WIN tonight and lose. They pitch FATTY in Game 5 and lose. AROD shoves his [censored] down Eric Wedge's throat so he chokes while Brian Cashman and Joe Torre lick his balls and collect raises.

If you compare each situation, having CC "ready" for Game 1 only has a marginal value at best and is offset by the increased possibility of Situation 2 or 3. More importantly, the value gained in increased chances of winning THIS series is unmistakable and worth much more in comparison. "Pitching game 1" is FPS and esp. bad when the staff is built around 2 aces where either one could potentially start 3 games.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about Option C, Situation 1: NY wins both games 4 and 5?

[ProfessorBen]

See, there are two teams in a baseball game. When one wins, the other must lose. Likewise, if a team loses a game, the other one must win! Wow! I'm sure you know all of that.

Here's where it gets tricky. If one team loses two games, guess what? The other one must win 2 games!

[Victor]

has cc ever pitched on 3 day rest before? how are we so sure that cc on short rest is gonna be better than byrd.

[kyro]

As much as I hate the Yanks, as a Red Sox fan, this is exactly the reason I was passively rooting for the Yankees.

[wdcbooks]

I am rooting for the Yankees now. Pitching Byrd just reeks of looking forward to the ALCS. It isn't so much that CC is better than Byrd, it is just criminal not to give Carmona a shot in game five on full rest.

Besides, I think the Sox match up better with NY than Cleveland, and it's more fun.

[TomCollins]

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I am rooting for the Yankees now. Pitching Byrd just reeks of looking forward to the ALCS. It isn't so much that CC is better than Byrd, it is just criminal not to give Carmona a shot in game five on full rest.

Besides, I think the Sox match up better with NY than Cleveland, and it's more fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 days rest just is such a gamble, even if its CC. Another option is to start Byrd, if he gets into trouble, put CC in, and start Fausto tomorrow.

[THEOSU]

uh,

you yankees fans are aware that you're still down 2 games to 1, right?