AA hand first level Irish Open

[Nikoms]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you should fold




[/ QUOTE ]

I agree...























No - I mean SHOVE!!!!!!

[Elrazor]

yeah shove - oppertunities to get chips off donks early doors are few and far between at these events. unless he is a complete idiot and he is scared his straight is somehow going to get donked off on that board, he has another PP. 3 of them just made trips and 10 didnt so you should be in a good spot

[LuckyLloyd]

Thanks for the responses. Consensus is for a push obv. I posted this hand in another forum where it produced a livlier discussion. My final comment was the below:

RESULTS: Clock was called. I asked to be informed when I had 15 seconds. When I was warned of the same I folded face - up. He didn't show at the time(Grrr), but the TV subsequently revealed to me that the villain actually had A2 and had flopped the second nuts.


So, I was behind. But that doesn't neccesarily mean that my laydown was correct. For me there are two questions:

- Are physical reads worth factoring into big decisions?

- Should we just automatically jam it in on a co - ordinated board with AA for 140 BBs?


The shrug of the shoulders; the staring away from me and avoiding eye contact; and the call of clock - are all obvious and overt signs that he is weak or uncertain of his holding. He appears weak, is going out of his way to appear weak - this is a solid indication that he is actually confident in his hand. The weak means strong / strong means weak thing is a poker cliche that I find generally holds through with bad players. However, the problem with this concept is that he could feel that he is strong and ahead with a hand I beat. He might be bad enough to think that JJ is miles ahead here. So, physical reads cannot be a rock solid indication of how to act.


I had invested 525 chips into the pot and was now being asked to tank in my remaining 7,000 (140BBs). In my opinion, he has presented me with a rare situation that I can fold AA or KK on this board. If I had 50BBs behind then I am getting it in and going broke without hesitation. But surely we have to be very certain that we are good to put in so many chips on one pair in this spot?

The guy was an erratic and bad player. The 1k ep raise a few hands earlier is strong evidence to that end. What of that raise though? Does anyone think that if he is called in that situation he will be turning over less than AA / KK / QQ / AK? I don't. We have a bad player in front of the cameras playing a major buy - in tourney. He might just be nervous and afraid of getting outdrawn.

On the basis of that previous over - raise, I automatically took 1010 - KK out of his range in this situation. I felt that he would re - raise me pre - flop with those hands. So I believed that I was beating 66 - 99, 56, 64, 63 (i.e. one pair with the straight draw), or a massively overplayed A5.

I am losing to 67, A2, 54, 34, 33, 44, 55. Given the fact that he was very active early on and had turned over some crazy stuff - I thought that he would definately call me pre - flop with those hands. So taking into consideration the physical tells, taking into account the fact that it would be a really mad, crazy bluff - and taking onboard the reality that I was being asked to stick a lot of chips in the pot: I decided to fold.

[Elrazor]

thanks for the final analysis. i think overall this hand represents the difference between online and live poker, being in a live enviroment, and expecially on a TV table players can get nervous about their holdings and dont want to appear stupid in front of other players and the cameras.

it also shows how deep stack these tourneys are early doors which you dont get online, and i think many posters including myself didnt figure this into our calculations. the live games i play you start with anything from 50bbs down to 10(!), and as you state in those enviroments the money is definatly going in.

i think also at a live event its also easier to gague how skilled your opponets are, and assess your ability to outplay them - if you feel you are going to be able to outplay the table you are on why take on a decision like this?? if on the other hand you have Gus on your right and Ivey on your left you might think your best opppertunity lies in gambling with them, busting them out and then attacking the table with your monster stack and image!

[0evg0]

so this was a bbv post after all, cool.

[LuckyLloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
so this was a bbv post after all, cool.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. I think there is a little more to it than that.

[0evg0]

sorry, we dont have anything higher than bbv. best we can do.