nowitzki over 34.5 pts/rebs -110 tonight

[dankhank]

i'm wondering if any of the player prop gurus on this site agree with my play here. i have just started looking into these myself, so i might not be picky enough.

chris webber one of the slowest and worst defenders in the league with his recurring bad back, is now also complaining about a sore foot and missed practice thursday. he will play tonight and guard dirk nowitzki.

nowitzki averages 24.6 points and 10 boards per game on the season, slightly above that pace in the past five.

nowitzki over 34.5 pts/rebounds -110 (thegreek)

only negative i see is if dallas blows out the sixers as expected, dirk might get less playing time.

only comparative price i see is sportsbook.com hanging dirk as the highest scorer favorite tonight at 5-1, compared to 7-1 for lebron, yao, and vince carter. the total on the game is a low 187.

[alecb]

In a competitive game against the 76ers, I would expect Dirk to go well-above 24 points because of the propensity of Dalembart and Webber to foul and Dirk's high FT percentage. The serious concern is that this game will be over by halftime. Philly isn't trying and this could honestly be a 20 point game by halftime. If you think Dirk will get 30+ minutes, I would go for it. But that is a big if.

[chachi]

34.5 seems very high for points/rebounds.

However, is sounds like a good number for points + rebounds.

[dreamcrusha]

I agree with Chachi LMAO!

[primetime32]

I like the under. Dallas plays a road game tomorrow so they will probbaly try and limit his minutes.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
In a competitive game against the 76ers, I would expect Dirk to go well-above 24 points because of the propensity of Dalembart and Webber to foul and Dirk's high FT percentage. The serious concern is that this game will be over by halftime. Philly isn't trying and this could honestly be a 20 point game by halftime. If you think Dirk will get 30+ minutes, I would go for it. But that is a big if.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to mention that Webber has some experience v. Dirk and is smart enough to play him reasonably well. And that Dallas is loaded with other weapons that will allow them to pull away early. Dallas's bench > philly's starting line up. So, the under is good.

[Back In Black]

He'll have 42 p+r. Do it.