Bodog Guns N' Roses Prop Bet

[thing85]

On Bodog:

Will rock band Guns N' Roses, fronted by Axl Rose, officially release their new album "Chinese Democracy" in 2006?

Yes: -200
No: +150

Article from Yahoo! Music: Guns' confirm release in November

From the article: "According to claims in Rolling Stone this week, Chinese Democracy has officially been scheduled for an American release date of November 21."

Does this seem like a good bet? With an "official" release date, how often do bands like this fail to release it? Seems like it would also be important to release it prior to the holiday season, so why would they hold off until 2007?

-200 seems to have good value here. Comments/criticism, please.

Edited to note: This album was previously set to be released this past April.

[playersare]

I've worked in music distribution for 12 years and none of my sources show it in the system yet. there is virtually no way it will come out on November 21st if you can't find a site or corporate intranet database that will take pre-orders for it as of today.

it may still come out in 2006, but nothing truly definitive seems to have been announced yet.

[brendanb438]

That Article is from Oct. 06. I would look for info that is from November before betting that one. I have to go out but when I get back in I will do a little research on it also.

-Brendan

[bills217]

I poked around on some message boards and no one seems to have any idea.

Given Bodog's history w/ soft favorite lines and my need to clear bonus there, I maxed out the Yes almost immediately, but after looking around, I'd say the value is probably on the No.

[Jibba]

If I had money on Bodog (maybe I'll be able to use my BetWWTS money) I'd probably take yes. This quote from their manager is from the Rolling Stone article (which pointed out that the album cost about $15 million to make!!):

"The album will come out this year. There are ten Tuesdays left before January – it will come out on one of them.”

[centris]

[ QUOTE ]

Edited to note: This album was previously set to be released this past April.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guns 'n Roses have been working on this album for 14 years. It was orginally supposed to be released in 2000. Since then the line up has changed repeatedly and songs have been re-recorded.

The Nov 21, 2006 release date rumor came on Oct. 5, 2006 when a source close to Rolling Stone magazine claimed the album had a firm release date of Nov 21, 2006. But this has never been an offical release date.

I was looking around on a G'n'R forum yesterday and it seems they are not optomistic about this release date. On there they did find this link to a UK online record store that claimed the relase date was Dec 18, 2006 (meaning a US release of Dec 19, 2006). But posters on that forum claimed there had been many past release dates that stores has since taken down.

http://www.hmv.co.uk/hmvweb/simpleSearch...ubmitSearch.y=0

The forum is www.mygnrforum.com which I cannot log onto today for some reason.

[caguma]

I'm staying away from this one, as GNR has been working on this album for so long and has kept pushing back release dates. Plus, I don't want to tie up my money until the end of the year.

[chachi]

Isn't this like the fourth or fifth time they claimed this CD was going to street?

It seems like Axl has been talking about it for 5 or six years, and I know it was originally supposed to street years ago.

[brendanb438]

Well this CD isn't listed as soon to be released on bestbuy.com nor is it even mentioned in our inventory. Usually CDS are up in are inventory with a street date 8 weeks in advance. If that no goes to +200 I am going to hit it. I don't see this coming out this year.

-Brendan

[thing85]

Thanks for the feedback guys. I only put 1 unit on it, with any further bets pending the discussion in this thread. I'm not a Guns N' Roses fan and haven't followed their music and album production. Sorry if I misled anyone with my OP.