Movies 12/15 to 12/18 - Page 4

domer2 · #31 12-15-2006, 11:17 AM

Eragon midnights are doing well. Half Narnia. Pundits in the know are predicting $30 mill.

Love my over on a $22 line!

Utah · #32 12-15-2006, 11:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Eragon midnights are doing well. Half Narnia. Pundits in the know are predicting $30 mill.

Love my over on a $22 line!

[/ QUOTE ]I love the over on the $22M as well. My only concern is that this movie could be massively front loaded. I dont know about the demo for this movie but is it possible that the fantasy crowd is heavily prone to a midnight movie?

I also recall the predictions after the fantastic Saw 3 midnights. There were many net pundits that said Saw 3 was going to hit $45M. But, if was hugely front loaded and it hit only $34M.

I still love the over $22M but I dont think it is money in the bank yet [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

llabb · #33 12-15-2006, 01:41 PM

Line movements were very strong this morning, closing past -200 for the Eragon Over, Pursuit of Happyness Over, and Charlotte's Web Under. I can see the rationale for the Eragon and Happyness moves, but not the Charlotte one. Perhaps you think it will bomb, and that's fine, we're all just making predictions, but did I miss any news on this one, compared to the positive news that Eragon and Happyness were getting?

Got a little scared as closing approached, though, because the movement was so strong for no apparent reason, so it seemed like some people knew something I didn't. Closing line movements that big have been money lately in movie props, as the sides with odds of -200 or higher have been 5-for-5 lately, and even closing directional plays have been solid, as sides with odds of -150 or higher have won 4-for-7 that I've seen.

So that bodes well for the Eragon and Happyness Overs, and poorly for Charlotte, as it's highly expected to go Under. I went with these closing directions, and took a little more Eragon and Happyness (4* now), and hedged some Charlotte (down to 2* now).

Utah · #34 12-15-2006, 03:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Line movements were very strong this morning, closing past -200 for the Eragon Over, Pursuit of Happyness Over, and Charlotte's Web Under. I can see the rationale for the Eragon and Happyness moves, but not the Charlotte one. Perhaps you think it will bomb, and that's fine, we're all just making predictions, but did I miss any news on this one, compared to the positive news that Eragon and Happyness were getting?

Got a little scared as closing approached, though, because the movement was so strong for no apparent reason, so it seemed like some people knew something I didn't. Closing line movements that big have been money lately in movie props, as the sides with odds of -200 or higher have been 5-for-5 lately, and even closing directional plays have been solid, as sides with odds of -150 or higher have won 4-for-7 that I've seen.

So that bodes well for the Eragon and Happyness Overs, and poorly for Charlotte, as it's highly expected to go Under. I went with these closing directions, and took a little more Eragon and Happyness (4* now), and hedged some Charlotte (down to 2* now).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Web is an easy under but there is no reason for that line movement that I could tell. It was interesting to watch. Very early numbers look good for Eragon and Happyness and poor for Web. Of course, it is way to early to read too much into anything.

Good luck everyone. I love waiting for the numbers to come out on friday.

DeezNuts · #35 12-15-2006, 04:18 PM

I really don't see Pursuit hitting more than $17m. This is not the typical Will Smith movie, not even like Ali. Bad word-of-mouth and reviews are going to kill it, IMO.

I'm also on the under for Charlotte's Web and Eragon. I'm not very confident about the Eragon play.

DN

chachi · #36 12-15-2006, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Got a little scared as closing approached, though, because the movement was so strong for no apparent reason, so it seemed like some people knew something I didn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

These markets are so small that one or two max bets are all that it took to move the line this morning. With the limits as low as they are on movies, max bets must be fairly common.

llabb · #37 12-15-2006, 06:28 PM

Looking at my Happyness figures, it looks like I made a mistake and entered my position wrong, so I messed up the middle. I have a somewhat Polish middle from 18-19, whereas I thought I had evened it out, so that I was simply over 18, and no middle.

So I need to buy the longshot 18-19 middle, at the cost of the other ends, but the WSEX 19 line is down, and the exchanges are at 18. Would anyone want to sell some of their middle, for gain at both ends of the other sides? I assume probably not, but somebody may have a ton of the middle, and be looking for more of a regular position. Or have a lot of the middle, but not much of a position, and want in.

You'd be only be giving a low-chance event that's not that likely to hit, and getting a probable definite gain whether it goes Over or Under, outside of the middle range. It could be done on an exchange, so that there's no lack of trust or transfer risk.

llabb · #38 12-15-2006, 06:42 PM

Also, if that's not appealing, or too complex, then there is another alternative that's much simpler.

I could swap you middle positions. I have some of the Eragon middle from 22-23, that I could give up to exchange you for the Happyness 18-19 middle.

I'm looking to get $200-$500 of the Happyness 18-19 middle, for either the same amount of the Eragon middle to give you, or to pay you a hard $ figure at whatever odds we agree on. Not looking for the best deal or anything, just to get something reasonable done. Anyone interested?

Does anyone even have this middle (18-19 Happyness)? Not trying to push anyone, just thought it might be interesting and economic to someone on the other side.

thing85 · #39 12-16-2006, 02:30 AM

Any idea how the early Friday numbers are looking? The price on TradeSports CW +$22m has dropped pretty greatly (you can get it for +400 now) which leads me to believe that Friday's early indications are poor on the outlook of CW going over $22m.

brendanb438 · #40 12-16-2006, 02:50 AM

The theatre we were getting presales for which is usually a really good indicator of the numbers across the country has done fairly well for CW, no one else has come close it looks like from early early numbers. It might only do around $4 Mill, maybe maybe $5 Mill for a total of under $20 Mill on the weekend.

Eragon and Pursuit look to be fighting it out for first place as of right now. Hard to saw how they will do but they look to be doing at least 2x or more what CW did.

-Brendna