Kinda simple Preflop spot v Tmay in 109r

[Bakes]

post your numbers

[curtains]

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I ran a bunch of opening/calling ranges here, but they basically boiled down to this: if he's opening {77+, AJo+, ATs+}, shoving is cEV neutral, if he's opening any wider, it's going to be +cEV. With a few very minor exceptions, this holds true for calling ranges from {JJ+,AK} down to {99+,AQ+}.

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Yeah this is what I said at beginning basically but no one cares [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Todd Terry]

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post your numbers

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I'm honored that you haven't yet put me on ignore. This analysis ignores the two players in the blinds, which obviously you shouldn't.

p = probability of winning given that we get called
q = % of range Tmay is bet/folding (i.e., 1-q = % of range he's bet/calling)

cEV = (1-q)[26300p + 23900(1-p)] + 5400q

For given calling ranges, I got p from PokerStove and then calculated the minimum q required for shoving to be +cEV.

Range------------------Min q
{JJ+,AK}---------------0.57
{TT+,AK}---------------0.56
{99+,AK}---------------0.41
{JJ+,AQ+}--------------0.41
{TT+,AQ+}--------------0.41
{99+,AQ+}--------------0.25

Then, you divide the min q by the number of hands in a given range to get the minimum number of hands Tmay needs to be opening:

Range------------------Hands in Call Range-------Open Min #
{JJ+,AK}---------------40------------------------93
{TT+,AK}---------------41------------------------93
{99+,AK}---------------47------------------------79
{JJ+,AQ+}--------------56------------------------94
{TT+,AQ+}--------------57------------------------96
{99+,AQ+}--------------63------------------------84

Opening {77+,AJo+,ATs+} is opening 101 hands (given that we hold TT). The only ranges where he could be opening a bit less and shoving would still be +cEV are when he's calling with 99.

[Bakes]

ok so it seems reraising is pretty clearly -EV if his calling range is JJ+AK (which is think is pretty reasonable) and his opening range doesn't include any AJ/AT combos. I don't really think he's that light here.

[Todd Terry]

The "+" in front of 23900 in my cEV formula should be a "-" above, the numbers are right though.

Bakes, if he's opening {77+,AQ+} and calling {JJ+,AK+}, cEV = -728 chips, which is less than a big blind. So you're never making a big mistake shoving here, you're basically just making a super-high variance play which is either barely +cEV or barely -cEV, depending on how wide he's opening.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
The "+" in front of 23900 in my cEV formula should be a "-" above, the numbers are right though.

Bakes, if he's opening {77+,AQ+} and calling {JJ+,AK+}, cEV = -728 chips, which is less than a big blind. So you're never making a big mistake shoving here, you're basically just making a super-high variance play which is either barely +cEV or barely -cEV, depending on how wide he's opening.

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I'd be VERY VERY surprised if he's not raising AJ from UTG and such with antes of 1/10th the big blind.

[shaundeeb]

I'm pretty sure he's not.

[Bakes]

if you can raise AJ here u can raise 87s too imo

[curtains]

I prefer AJ, makes it like a few % points less that someone will reraise you usually. Since it's a relatively marginal hand, that is often going to make the difference between it being +ev or -ev.

Anyway I usually fold AJo UTG in these spots but never with antes like this. I'm pretty certain that from a theoretical standpoint you should be raising that hand here. Risking 3000 to win 2500 is so much different than risking 3000 to win 1500. It's not even close to the same situation.

[ZJ123]

sorry about no converter, as Todd and Curtians are saying, i figured it was really close between calling and raising.
Also i think hes opening up 77 and AJ here for the most part, but maybe i misinterpreted his range.