FT Hand against Apestyles (is this -$ev)

[craigthedeac]

How can Apestyles call the 4b light (even if he is getting 2.2:1) when he puts Charder on a range of TT+?

Either Ape has to fold to the 4b with his junk (I don't remember exactly what he had) or his initial assumptions (that Charder knows and will follow ICM) were incorrect. If he can't be sure that Charder will fold worse than TT, then he shouldn't make this sized raise to begin with.

If we assume that Apestyles will fold to the 4b, then OP's play isn't as bad as it may seem. Although Ape intended on putting Charder in a spot where he had no FE, he still should if Ape will put him on TT+.

Edit: basically, Ape's sizing is poor if he is going to call a shove light. He tried to commit himself but didn't given the range he put OP on to shove.

[aaaaaaaa]

so your not supposed to just play to win at FT'Swhoops

[betgo]

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for what its worth, I would never in a million billion years go allin with any 2 from the SB. I think that its terrible against ALMOST every opponent. Some will either be scared you will reraise so they will open too tight, and some will have too big an ego to fold to the big stack. You are just way too deep to do it here. Anyone who really thinks he should be doing this with any 2 when the players are about 50 BB deep and there are 4 BB's in the pot is too smart for their own good.

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The big stack and the medium stack need to make adjustments with these stack sizes. The big stack should play very aggressive and the medium stack should play very solid.

In this case, both players misplayed this hand badly at every opportunity. OP should open raise small to keep the pot small and make it harder for ape to try stuff. Planning a reraise allin with this hand in this situation is not good.

Ape should not be making a huge pot committing reraise with an average hand. That is good in an SNG with much shallower money. Just call or fold. If you flat call, you have an advantage postflop, as OP doesn't want to bust.

To the huge raise, OP obviously has to fold A9o with the payout structure.

[DJ Pattiecake]

[ QUOTE ]
How can Apestyles call the 4b light (even if he is getting 2.2:1) when he puts Charder on a range of TT+?

Either Ape has to fold to the 4b with his junk (I don't remember exactly what he had) or his initial assumptions (that Charder knows and will follow ICM) were incorrect. If he can't be sure that Charder will fold worse than TT, then he shouldn't make this sized raise to begin with.

If we assume that Apestyles will fold to the 4b, then OP's play isn't as bad as it may seem. Although Ape intended on putting Charder in a spot where he had no FE, he still should if Ape will put him on TT+.

Edit: basically, Ape's sizing is poor if he is going to call a shove light. He tried to commit himself but didn't given the range he put OP on to shove.

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wow great post. how has no one thought of this yet? apestyles reasoning in this hand and his reraise ammount aren't good anymore. charders call is still bad though. +++EV to shortie

EDIT: If APE's drunkness affects anything in this hand it would be that he would want to be table captain more and charder's 3x BB raise (in his mind to announce he means business, i assume) challenges apestyle's machismo and further encourages him to punish. metadrunkgame ftw

[apestyles]

I 100 percent played the hand poorly. I also did not have the right odds to call with my junk hand versus his range when he 4 bet. I would need around 3:1 to call not 2.2:1. It was saturday night and the last tourney I was in. Drunken mistakes ftw!

Edit: the only reason I mentioned being drunkilated was because I was fully aware that my play was garbage but I also messaged charder and told him his play was huge -$ev, hence this post. I would however like to mention that in mtts errors on the aggressive/loose side > errors on the tight/nitty side.

[DJ Pattiecake]

Did that range include A9o? Will it next time? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[craigthedeac]

I want to reiterate the next level that isn't really being discussed.

That is, Charder *should* have FE. We know that Ape is 3betting really light here. We also can deduce that if we shove, he has to put us on a super-tight range (TT+) and should then fold most of his range. Even if he doesn't give us credit for as much as TT+, he has to think we are really strong.

I'm not saying that a shove is correct, but a shove wider than TT+ definitely is, because Ape should be folding his garbage due to what we represent.

You have to find the equilibrium, which is not easy, but it's gotta be wider than TT+.

This sort of stuff came up a lot back in my SNG days. For example, you have to loosen up your calling range when you know a good player is shoving any two. He then has to shove slightly tighter because he knows you will be adjusting. These "perfect" adjustments go on and on, but eventually they reach an equilibrium point where you can find the "perfect" range to shove assuming both players have made infinite adjustments.

[apestyles]

no, you should never assume that im going to fold in a heads up pot getting 2.2:1. Okay, maybe like 10 percent..

I didnt even think about my raise size at the time, I wasnt really thinking about much to be honest, in my mind I was basically shoving. I've got millions of hands in pt and you can probablyi find like 20-30 spots where I fold getting > 2:1 preflop in a heads up pot.

[craigthedeac]

This is an incredibly unique situation, with the ICM aspects and such.

We can confidently put you on basically any two, you have to give a shove a strong range. Our shoving range is going to crush your range and you'd be insane to call with your any two 90% of the time.

Basically, if you have any two, we have (what should be considerable) FE, because of how tight a range we have to have (and what you will put us on). If you call any two here 90% of the time *in this unique situation* it's so spewy.

[apestyles]

No, I think it is just hindsight that says I can have any two here. Cause I had T5o which is like the bottom 20 percent of the deck. However, there is no way that he could know that. I could very easily have AK, AQ, or AJ and just not want to get flat called. Also, if I am flat called the rest of charders stack is basically a pot bet. He has to assume that I am folding 23o, 38o etc, even though, as it turns out, I am not.

edit: btw, I think you have a reasonable point of argument but in this spot I think vs. me you have to assume you're getting called at least 90 percent.