DIALIDOL for the finals

GrannyMae · #1 05-22-2007, 09:48 PM

looks like jordin is a mortal lock.

discuss

pokerplayer28 · #2 05-22-2007, 09:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
looks like jordin is a mortal lock.

discuss

[/ QUOTE ]

hopefully itll balance out like it ussually does on the west coast for a little doubt

GrannyMae · #3 05-22-2007, 10:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
looks like jordin is a mortal lock.

discuss

[/ QUOTE ]

hopefully itll balance out like it ussually does on the west coast for a little doubt

[/ QUOTE ]

didn't we determine that the 30 minute mark was the most reliable? we are way beyond that and it looks like a landslide.

i'm wondering if it is EV+ to buy her now.

gotta be a sure thing tho..

pokerplayer28 · #4 05-22-2007, 10:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
looks like jordin is a mortal lock.

discuss

[/ QUOTE ]

hopefully itll balance out like it ussually does on the west coast for a little doubt

[/ QUOTE ]

didn't we determine that the 30 minute mark was the most reliable? we are way beyond that and it looks like a landslide.

i'm wondering if it is EV+ to buy her now.

gotta be a sure thing tho..

[/ QUOTE ]

melinda was kicking ass at the 30 min mark last week.

EDIT
just trying to cause a little doubt, but its not happenin this thing is over.

brendanb438 · #5 05-22-2007, 10:03 PM

Melinda wasn't kicking any ass last week at that mark. She was within the MOE of possibly being the bottom person.

This is the first time all season that someone has been sooo far below at the 30 minute mark that I remember.

-Brendan

GrannyMae · #6 05-22-2007, 10:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Melinda wasn't kicking any ass last week at that mark. She was within the MOE of possibly being the bottom person.

This is the first time all season that someone has been sooo far below at the 30 minute mark that I remember.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

qft

pokerplayer28 · #7 05-22-2007, 10:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Melinda wasn't kicking any ass last week at that mark. She was within the MOE of possibly being the bottom person.

This is the first time all season that someone has been sooo far below at the 30 minute mark that I remember.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

qft

[/ QUOTE ]

She's actually starting to pull away even further, there is definately +EV at 93 and even though shes like 99% to win her buy price will never rise above 95

LotsOfOuts69 · #8 05-22-2007, 11:13 PM

Lock it up, its all over.

pokerplayer28 · #9 05-22-2007, 11:46 PM

So do we email WSEX and get them offering a market for "So you think you can dance"? I never watched the show before but I never watched Idol until after I placed my first bet on it.

StellarWind · #10 05-23-2007, 12:07 AM

Let's continue my analysis from last week:

[ QUOTE ]
The DI results aren't very trustworthy in an absolute sense, but relatively speaking they are telling a story and it's not the one I read in this thread. The trick is to look at what happened last week and compare it with this week's results. The cumulative busy percentage is a good stat to examine. The whole curve is interesting, but 11:00 EDT is especially important because that's when the Eastern voting closed. After that the results aren't very statistically significant.

1. Melinda made huge gains this week compared to last week. No doubt this is due to capturing LaKisha's share.

2. Blake made virtually no progress against Jordin. She clings to a tiny DI lead over Blake just like she did last week.

Conclusion: It is widely believed that Jordin easily beat Blake last week. If this is actually true then she has beaten him again.

[/ QUOTE ]
By itself Jordin's big DI lead does not prove she is winning. Melinda and Phil are all the proof you should need to see that absolute DI results cannot be trusted. DI has built-in biases that overrate some contestants while underrating others. The thing to examine is the relative results:

1. Two weeks ago Jordin and Blake finished nearly tied on DI. Jordin was the first to be declared safe while Blake wound up standing next to LaKisha.

2. One week ago Jordin and Blake finished nearly tied on DI. Jordin was the first to be declared safe while Blake wound up standing next to Melinda.

Now Jordin is crushing Blake on DI. The obvious conclusion is that this week Jordin gained a large number of votes compared to Blake. If she was already ahead then she has a landslide now. Even if she was a little behind last week she should win.

The only way Blake might win is if was decisively ahead last week. This is possible because we don't actually know the rankings for the last two weeks. But it appears to go against everything we think we know about the show.