#41
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Re: KingTenSooooooted
As I've stated before, I believe raising is by far the worst option on the flop.
Nevermind that for now. So, looks like he's got the best hand, although he might've been following up on a bluff (what percentage do you think he's doing that here?). With the turned combo draw, you're about 3.3 to 1 dog to win in this spot against a sensible range of hands, while only offered 1.9 to 1. I don't think you've got enough behind ($26 left if you call) to make a call neutral EV vs a better hand, even if you always got all the money on the river should you hit. So it comes down to how often he's bluffing here to make a decision. At the table I'm not able to think this through precisely enough, so I'd rather fold. |
#42
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Re: KingTenSooooooted
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] yes standard raise size is $2.5 I am trying out a few different sized raises here and there. I want to build a family pot for when I hit my flush or when I hit the straight to make sure I can scoop the maximum when I get a big hand. KTs from the CO is well within my opening range over the top of 1 limper. folding pre is weaksauce I think. [/ QUOTE ] I think one of the biggest leaks of uNL player is taking up plans and then not sticking to the consequences. Be it a bet/fold where we end up calling the raise anyway or a limp behind to see if we hit big where we suddenly start sticking in bets although we hit only marginal. If you experiment with the raise size to "build a family pot" then you have to stick with it and be prepared to fold hands that you would have played HU on the flop and only continue with "family pot" type of hands. [/ QUOTE ] Great post Triggerle. I simply cannot do anything other than fold flop. And for me it's not within a million miles of even being close. |
#43
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Re: KingTenSooooooted
[ QUOTE ]
Hmmmmm..... so the considered opinion seems that folding>>>>raising>>>>call ing? I am not looking for a particular answer, I just want to get your opinions. I certainly didn't play this hand "standardly" O well. I have a read that the guy behind me is a nit, and if I call he's going to fold everything thats not a set/OP, and the odds he has an OP are approximately zero given preflop. So are the chances he'll come up with a fancy Squeeze play for this many chips. So if I raise here I might get called behind me and if I do I'm crushed, I think I can flat call and end up HU with villain with TP2K in position. I think that villain has a spade draw/2pair/set/or is bluffing and I think thta villain is bluffing here ~20% of the time. I think that my hand has potential to become a monster depending on what falls on the turn and I want to see what villains turn action is. So bearing all that in mind I flat call, nit behind me turbo folds.... Turn:Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (Pot ~$21) Villain thinks a while and leads for $23. [/ QUOTE ] I don't play 6max but I was thinking similarly. His bet size on the turn should be very revealing no matter what turns. If he bets large you are in trouble imo but if he bets smaller you should push. Anyway, after I thought about it a bit I figured that the fold is the best option on the flop as I think it's rare for a tag to bet full pot oop into a draw and secondly that your call can't really represent a draw - you would push almost always with a draw plus overcards and almost never just call a full pot bet. |
#44
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Re: KingTenSooooooted
TAGs who pot two streets almost always have gigantic hands.
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#45
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Re: KingTenSooooooted
i love that the Party table was berating you for this...
'man you cannot call a TAGs full pot lead on a 2 tone flop multiway with TP!' 'dude you should raise to 4+1 pf' 'make a plan and stick to it you donk' 'wtf how was your hand going to turn into a monster' 'yr a 2p2 mod?!?' I've been saying $50nl at Party is tough... |
#46
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Re: KingTenSooooooted
PF basically what you are doing is creating a pot sweetner with the small raise, which is not bad in itself if you are planning on only really getting aggresive when you flop a big hand.
Pretty much the flop is not the ideal situation for you here, no real draws other than backdoors, TP/GK, with a def Tag leading a overbet of the pot into you. Generally this means 2pair/set. Now I can justify calling flop bet to see how tag plays the turn, because if he does check to you we can see a free card and our implied odds are huge if we do hit a monster. But pretty much this isn't the case here on the turn. He leads out with an overbet here, leaving himself only 31.5 behind, of which you can only get 29.3. So even if we do hit our flush or our straight on the river, and we get his stack every time, our implied odds are only 3.1-1, and mind you this does not take into account the rake, which makes your odds worse here. Pretty easy fold on the turn here, anything else is pretty damn spewy, because a call is horrible, and if we push there is almost no fold equity. Villain has pretty well defined his hand here, and we are way behind his range here with the pot not offering us anywhere close to the right odds to play. |
#47
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Re: KingTenSooooooted
FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD!!!!! Fold flop, fold turn.
He 100% has you beat here and you don't have odds to continue. Hell you didn't even have odds on the flop to call. Look what happens when you call flop. You get into difficult spots you don't want or need to be in. |
#48
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Re: KingTenSooooooted
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I raise more preflop and given that btn is still to act and our hand is so vulnerable I think a call is very bad, you either have to raise or fold. I like a fold without some kind of solid read, I don't think this is a worse hand very often, and even if it is this is not a very profitable situation. [/ QUOTE ] To be honest, I think raising < calling here. By raising everyone is going to play their respective hands perfectly against us. And I refuse to be scared of the possibility that villain behind us has a draw. He'll fold like 90% of the time. If he calls, too, the setup turned sour. Fold turn and move on. [/ QUOTE ] If we raise or call we define our hand to the tee and villain will be able to play perfectly against us 100% of the time. Cold calling that basically means "I don't have a strong enough hand to raise you, but I have a hand I want to defend". There's only 3-4 hands (A10, JJ, QQ, maybe KK, K10, maybe J10) that would suit you calling that flop and hence, giving away your hand. |
#49
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Re: KingTenSooooooted
[ QUOTE ]
i love that the Party table was berating you for this... 'man you cannot call a TAGs full pot lead on a 2 tone flop multiway with TP!' 'dude you should raise to 4+1 pf' 'make a plan and stick to it you donk' 'wtf how was your hand going to turn into a monster' 'yr a 2p2 mod?!?' I've been saying $50nl at Party is tough... [/ QUOTE ] lol nh |
#50
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Re: KingTenSooooooted
[ QUOTE ]
Cold calling that basically means "I don't have a strong enough hand to raise you, but I have a hand I want to defend". There's only 3-4 hands (A10, JJ, QQ, maybe KK, K10, maybe J10) that would suit you calling that flop and hence, giving away your hand. [/ QUOTE ] Add random spades, 87 and maybe J8. Depending on whether villain knows hero is supposed to play solid and aggressive, it could be any set, or two pair too. |
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