I don't believe stories about how much people win. Do you?

mynamewastaken · #1 05-20-2007, 07:26 PM

My new roommate told me this story about a friend of his whom I have never met, and whose name I don't even know.

He says his friend deposited $50 into Pokerstars 2 years ago. He had played some holdem at home games before but never seriously. He promised himself he would never deposit any more money into an online gambling site again, and never did. That $50 was his entire bankroll, and if he ever dropped below it he would quit. This is key.

I asked what games he played. My roommate said he started at $1/$2 LHE. After grilling some more, my roommate said he "wasn't sure but it was probably lower... maybe $0.10/$0.20". He has since gone on to withdraw over $500k without ever having dipped below the original $50.

Now, I'm far from a math person. I like to think I understand EV and variance, but I can't figure out the likelihood of this story being true as told.

Of course since it's 3rd hand info likely some of the info has gotten lost in translation, but the key here (and I made sure to go over this again and again, is that there was NEVER EVER a redeposit and at NO POINT did the friend sink below the original $50.

What is the likelihood that this story is true as I have related it to you?

I said I simply did not believe it, knowing what I do about gambling. To me it seems much more likely to win the lottery off a single ticket. Certainly he could have started at penny games, been incredibly disciplined, spent months building up a bankroll and dropped back in limits every time he started running bad, but the combination of luck, discipline and skill involved, plus the fact that I would think even then it would take more than 2 years to grind out half a mil, make me think it's [censored]. My roommate called me an idiot for not believing the story, and I just let it slide because he doesn't understand gambling, but I wanted to check with people who know what they're talking about.

So...yeah... anybody here believe this story? Or can anyone supply any math that sheds light on the situation one way or another? Thanks!

Bobo Fett · #2 05-20-2007, 07:52 PM

The part you seem most incredulous of is the fact that he never redposited. I find this the easiest part to believe. If you start off carefully, the players are bad enough and the bonuses good enough to eliminate most variance...especially if you play limit. I don't think I've ever redeposited since I started a year ago, aside from a couple of times for a bonus when I didn't have enough of my bankroll free to take advantage.

As to the $500,000 part, well I guess that depends on how quickly the player improved. That is an awful lot of money in two years for a beginner, but it might well be possible for someone who dedicated themselves.

ZBTHorton · #3 05-20-2007, 08:03 PM

I know lots of people who have made v few deposits into poker sites. I haven't made one in like 2 years. So it's certainly possible. But probably not likely.

nimajneb · #4 05-20-2007, 08:08 PM

My story is similar to Bobo's & your friends. I had $50 transferred from my sister years ago. That is the only outside funding I've ever put into online gaming. I've played 100's of K of hands and withdrawn a fair bit of money, though not $500K.

Bankroll management isn't rocket science. It's winning the $500K that's difficult.

ImsaKidd · #5 05-20-2007, 08:20 PM

You could talk to his roommate for like 2 minutes and determine if he could make 500k or not. It would be obvious if he was competent or not.

NU Star · #6 05-20-2007, 08:23 PM

I sold play money to start my roll and have only ever deposited for bonuses.

disjunction · #7 05-20-2007, 08:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Of course since it's 3rd hand info likely some of the info has gotten lost in translation, but the key here (and I made sure to go over this again and again, is that there was NEVER EVER a redeposit and at NO POINT did the friend sink below the original $50.

[/ QUOTE ]

It sounds like you are hung up on this point. Don't be. This is the least impressive part of the story. Anybody who is not stupid about their bankroll can do this part. Just lower your stakes with every downswing, this way you have a perpetual 500 BB bankroll, you'd have to go on a 5000 BB downswing to lose back the original $50. But of course this never happens.

Maybe if he's a liar, the 500K is more like 300K.

mynamewastaken · #8 05-20-2007, 08:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But of course this never happens.

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I'm not sure what this means, even tho I understand your post, I find it hard to believe that anyone, especially a beginner player, would be THAT disciplined. I guess I'm wrong on this point, but wouldn't it take MONTHS even at penny games where the winning is relatively easy, to build your bankroll into something substantial so you could have a shot at it? And wouldn't you have to pretty much always run well?

Equal · #9 05-20-2007, 08:43 PM

I think we are being leveled.

disjunction · #10 05-20-2007, 08:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But of course this never happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what this means, even tho I understand your post, I find it hard to believe that anyone, especially a beginner player, would be THAT disciplined. I guess I'm wrong on this point, but wouldn't it take MONTHS even at penny games where the winning is relatively easy, to build your bankroll into something substantial so you could have a shot at it? And wouldn't you have to pretty much always run well?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just meant that if you're a winning player, and you play like this, your downswings will never be so large, it will never happen.

Getting out of the penny games should only take a couple of months. I started at the .01/.02, and moved up to the .50/1.00 within 3 months or so. I was doing this on a family member's account, theoretically I never dipped below an original $2. It took 9 months before I moved up to $10/$20, and 5 months later up to $20/$40. I had a job and grad school, I never even got to play much. Not only have I never redeposited, I have withdrawn a lot and I guarantee none of that money is ever going back in. It's been spent.

I took shots at $15/$30 and $20/$40 Limit, but that's where I started hitting variance, or maybe I just suck, and I cowered back to $10/$20. But if I were better at poker (ha!), good enough to win 1.5 BB/100 at the $30/$60 when the sites were good, and played more, the scenario you describe would have been pretty easy.

There was a running thread, by nath, I think, in BBV, where he turned a small amount into $1000 in a week on a prop bet.