NL pennant, am i missing something?

[zer0]

611 Chicago Cubs +725
612 Arizona Diamondbacks +125
613 Philadelphia Phillies +805
614 Colorado Rockies +135

betting on both arizona and colorado is a virtual lock, no? even if one of them happens to ckoke, the other would still be a favorite in the next series.

[Post-Oak]

Yes, you are missing something.

Neither Division series is over yet.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
even if one of them happens to ckoke, the other would still be a favorite in the next series.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa, I didn't even see that part.

If one of them chokes, you have already lost one bet.

Also, the other wouldn't neccesarilly be a favorite.

[zer0]

i know neither series is over. i'm not really a sports bettor, i didnt know if the numbers match the realistic odds of neither colorado or arizona making the world series.

[crockpot]

- betting multiple -EV lines can never become +EV

- when betting a combined line of -669, you want a better downside than your team being a favorite in the LCS

- neither of these teams would be favored over chicago or philly anyway

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
i know neither series is over. i'm not really a sports bettor, i didnt know if the numbers match the realistic odds of neither colorado or arizona making the world series.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://playoffodds.blogspot.com/2007...yoff-odds.html

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i know neither series is over. i'm not really a sports bettor, i didnt know if the numbers match the realistic odds of neither colorado or arizona making the world series.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://playoffodds.blogspot.com/2007...yoff-odds.html

[/ QUOTE ]

crockpot, I'm curious as to how you have Colorado as "only" 85.3 to advance to the LCS?

Flipping coins, they would have a 87.5% chance.

Two of three games left are in Coors. If Philly wins tonight, they may be sending Hamels out on three days rest tomorrow out of desperation. This is not a good spot for a young pitcher returning from an injury.

Colorado, on the other hand, can hold back Francis to pitch on 5 days rest.

Colorado has a better Pythagorean record (obviously their schedules were quite different though). So do you have Philly as a significantly better team?

I guess you must be on Philly tonight?

I would guess Colorado's chances of advancing are closer to 90% than 85%.

[Thremp]

PO,

Philly is a better team.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
PO,

Philly is a better team.

[/ QUOTE ]

What/whose power ratings is this based on? BP?


It looks like Hamels is not going on 3 days rest. He's decided he doesn't want to, and also said he doesn't want to pitch out of the pen. He just wants to be ready for a game 5.

Actually, he's probably right that he shouldn't pitch game 4. But refusing to come out of the pen to potentially face a lefty or two just seems stupid and selfish.

Anyway, it looks like he won't be going on 3 days rest, so scratch that comment.

But than means the next two matchups are:

Moyer @ Jimenez
Lohse @ Fogg

The Rockies should be favored in both games. Fogg isn't better than Lohse, but the home field advantage should be more important.

Of course, the Phillies would be big faves with Hamels going at home in game 5.

Still, I see these teams as being equal, and the schedule favors the Rockies.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
crockpot, I'm curious as to how you have Colorado as "only" 85.3 to advance to the LCS?

[/ QUOTE ]

basically, because philadelphia is a better team. it's true that coors helps colorado out, but they also have ubaldo jimenez and josh fogg starting those games. and in case you haven't noticed, the philly lineup is really really good.

you can find colorado at about -600 to win the series, so it's not like the market thinks i'm horribly wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
This is not a good spot for a young pitcher returning from an injury.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe, but you're not seriously arguing you'd rather throw fogg out there than hamels? if you think hamels is pitching hurt, obviously that's going to change your numbers around, but he looked fine at the end of the regular season.

[ QUOTE ]
Colorado has a better Pythagorean record (obviously their schedules were quite different though). So do you have Philly as a significantly better team?

[/ QUOTE ]

colorado also achieved those numbers with aaron cook, rodrigo lopez, and jason hirsh all healthy, and willy taveras patrolling center. philly, if anything, is fielding a better team today than they have most of the season.

if my system misses on anything, it may be underrating fielding, so perhaps the rockies deserve an extra boost there. (tulo for ROY!) i don't see that taking them to 90%, however.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you must be on Philly tonight?

[/ QUOTE ]

check the R-D archives.