50NL: Value bet this river with JJ?

[critikal]

Villian is 41/5/1.3 over 50 or so hands.

Wasn't 100% sure that I should be value betting this river. Assuming I should be value betting, what amount should I bet and what should my plan be if he check raises?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $115.25
BB: $51.50
UTG: $47
Hero (CO): $67.35
BTN: $4

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $2.25, BB folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($8) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, SB calls $5, UTG folds

Turn: ($18) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $11</font>, SB calls $11

River: ($40) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero ????

[Micro Donk]

well if we v-bet, we will be forced to stack off, but 20-25 sounds right...

[Profish2285]

I like 20 here.

[toddxlogan]

There are basically two hands we are valuebetting against here - 99 and 9T. We are also slaughtered by a couple of villain's reasonable holdings. I'm not sure this valuebet is as easy/simple as the previous two posters have indicated. Does villain have any history of calling 3 streets of value with underpairs to the board? Has he shown any ability to c/r river? I think these are factors that need to be considered.

If villain is a total donk willing to call a 3rd bet with, say, 55/66/AK, then I think a VB of a smallish amount, maybe 16 or something, is good. If villain has shown any propensity for FPS, then I bunch my panties up and check behind. Readlesss.... ehh, I guess i'm forced to valuebet..ish... but I just don't see to many hands we are getting value out of save 99 and 9T.

[Profish2285]

This is an easy and clear value bet because villain has shown absolutely zero hand strength so far. With that being a given, we are to assume he has what, trip eights? He could have 66 for all we know. He could also have JT in addition to the reasonable holdings of 99 and T9. Villain seems like a loose passively player, so why cant he hold 66 or 55 easily? I understand the stats are a small sample, but they give some indication, and that indication is that villain is in fact a "total donk".

[KEW]

I like a check behind..If we value bet it is very thin at best...If we are ahead of villains CALLING range it is only slightly..But OTOH we are way behind villain range when he CRs us...

With a little better read on villain ie.. what hands villain has been showing down I could easily be swayed into the value bet "camp"...Villain stats ALONE does seem to warrant a small value bet..

[toddxlogan]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy and clear value bet because villain has shown absolutely zero hand strength so far. With that being a given, we are to assume he has what, trip eights? He could have 66 for all we know. He could also have JT in addition to the reasonable holdings of 99 and T9. Villain seems like a loose passively player, so why cant he hold 66 or 55 easily? I understand the stats are a small sample, but they give some indication, and that indication is that villain is in fact a "total donk".

[/ QUOTE ]

We care absolutel ZERO about what villain's hand range is here, we care only about his calling/checkraising range. I think his calling range is extremely limited in terms of hands we are ahead of to a possible 99 and very probably 9T. I don't think even most donks call a third street of value here with 55 or 66, but who knows.

I'm with KEW.