50NL Induced a bluff so I gotta call?

[critikal]

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I bet the turn because his range after the flop is sets and Tx (maybe 77-99). This way you get value from all the Tx hands (maybe those middle pairs if villain is really bad) and can easily fold to a raise (set).

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How much you planning on betting into a $38 pot on the turn that is going to allow you to fold to a raise? Hero is only sitting on $36 at that point.

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Do you guys really think he's calling a shove on the river with a hand we beat?

I think he and others are correct in saying bet the turn. If he does have some random ten, and it's possible we can tempt him with pot odds in if we bet like 15 on the turn and the remaining 21 into the $68 pot on the river.

In the hand I pretty much gave no thought to raising (I practically instacalled him). Thought a while before checking the turn, but figured that he was likely to have some weird 6x sort ,of hand and he'd been folding to 2-barrels. At the time I was thinking I didn't wanna get the hand all in, but now that I look back on it I had no good reason. Even a somewhat small turn bet commits me to the hand, so I might as well give him good odds to call on both streets with whatever 6 or T he has.

One other thing on this player, he had a flop AF of 1.15ish, turn AF of .8 and river AF of 3.0. I think this makes it more likely that he'd bet out with his worse ten than check call. He was running pretty well over this small sample however, winning 63% of showdowns, so its possible that he had just been making hands on the river and betting them.

Does anyone consider folding if he shoves the river rather than his 1/3 pot blockish bet?