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#1
01-08-2006, 08:53 PM
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mon cbb system games 66-39-2
Okay, early lines for Mon:
Ark LR -4.5 CalSB - 4.5 Wofford -2.5 LMU -3 Naj [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 
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#3
01-09-2006, 11:58 AM
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Re: mon cbb system games 66-39-2
Here's my notes on it:
1) We bet home teams favored by less than 5 pts 2) No big 'rivalry' matchups, however. 3) We exclude matchups with both teams in the top 25. Essentially, we feel that 'home court advantage' is under-rated by the general public. However, in top 25 matchups where there is a lot of focus and also for rivalry games, i.e. Duke-UNC, LV-UK, Cinci-Xavier, people also focus on the value of home court advantage, so we toss those out also. caveats: When the visiting team was initially favored, but is now a Pick 'em, we do not bet. When the home team was favored, and is now Even, we do bet - again, because we feel HC advantage is being undervalued. If any of the home teams drops to dog, avoid. Side note: "we" in the above is Najdorf and friends. I'm just along for the ride.
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#4
01-09-2006, 12:05 PM
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Re: mon cbb system games 66-39-2
heh, "Najdorf and friends" sounds like the hot new kids show.
J_Treez has the "system" correct as I understand it, as well.
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#5
01-09-2006, 12:15 PM
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Re: mon cbb system games 66-39-2
Those notes are Najdorf approved. That's the official "Najdorf and Friends" seal of approval as far as I'm concerned.
And there HAS to be a breakfast cereal to tie in with the kids show.
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#8
01-09-2006, 01:34 PM
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Another Question On The System
[ QUOTE ]
If any of the home teams drops to dog, avoid. [/ QUOTE ] This is the one part of the system that I don't understand (Najorf, perhaps you could explain). At what point in time does the system advocate playing games: when the lines open, or immediately before tip-off? If you are playing games early, you may end up with some plays on your card that don't fit the system due to a later line movement. What do you do with those plays? The money that you win or lose on those games is just as real as the money that you win or lose on games where the line doesn't move from favorite to dog. A similar problem might be present if a team opens -4 and the line moves to -6. Do you play it anyway? It sounds like the answer is yes, which is what it should be. Basically, if line movements are to be taken into account and there is no set time as to when bets should be placed, then the "system" isn't really a "system" in the sense of NoChance's ranked vs. unranked and should not be treated as such, IMHO. Thoughts? ML4L PS I think that a more interesting topic for discussion is the actual premise upon which the system is built and whether or not it could possibly give rise to a long-term +EV trend...
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#10
01-09-2006, 03:20 PM
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Re: mon cbb system games 66-39-2
[ QUOTE ]
Here's my notes on it: 1) We bet home teams favored by less than 5 pts [/ QUOTE ] Why less than 5 points? What if the home team opened at 6 point favoriate but public moved the team to just 4 point favoriate? The "system" will still make the pick despite the obvious implication that the line was most likely driven by the public betting on the home team? What about slight home dogs? If public would overlook the homecourt advantage for the home favoriates, why wouldn't they also overlook the same advantage for the home dogs? [ QUOTE ] 2) No big 'rivalry' matchups, however. 3) We exclude matchups with both teams in the top 25. Essentially, we feel that 'home court advantage' is under-rated by the general public. However, in top 25 matchups where there is a lot of focus and also for rivalry games, i.e. Duke-UNC, LV-UK, Cinci-Xavier, people also focus on the value of home court advantage, so we toss those out also. [/ QUOTE ] In summary, the system advocates picking the home favoriate in close games. The reasoning is that public often overlooks the homefield advantage. This reasoning however is flawed because the lines are set by the books, not the public. You may argue that books set up the lines knowing that the public is going to overlook the homefield advantage. The argument does not work however because it is a known fact that public tends to bet on the favoriate team regardless of whether the favoriate team is playing at home or away. (you can confirm this at www.wagerline.com) Books will probably take this into account and may even adjust the line in favor for the away dogs. [ QUOTE ] caveats: When the visiting team was initially favored, but is now a Pick 'em, we do not bet. When the home team was favored, and is now Even, we do bet - again, because we feel HC advantage is being undervalued. If any of the home teams drops to dog, avoid. [/ QUOTE ] The system that relies this heavily on arbitrary line movements is not only hopelessly inefficient, it cannot possibly work in the long run.
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Linear Mode
