re-raise fold?

[electrical]

Seat four is not too familiar (maybe 30-50 hands together), but seems to be a pretty predictable, straightforward player, though not an ignorant one. I have been winning, showing down quality hands -- not always a given with me. I don't believe he has additional notes on me from any prior play. Seat Six is loose and passive.

Interested in comments both on the re-raise and the fold. I initially thought villain's raise could have been an attempt to buy a free card or two with a big pair+draw, but my opinion changed when he capped.

After villain caps, my thought process is probably obvious. I'm almost a 9:1 dog to fill, getting a little better than 8:1 at the moment, and I could lose a big wedge if we both improve. I have represented trips and he still wants to get his money in.

7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $1, Bring-In $1.50 (converter)

Seat 1: $282.50
Seat 2: $126.50
Seat 3: $153
Seat 4: $66.50
Seat 5: $541.50
Seat 6: $319.50
Hero: $661
Seat 8: $386

3rd Street - (1.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___brings-in ___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___folds
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___completes
Seat 5: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___folds
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___calls
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___calls
Seat 8: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___folds

4th Street - (4.90 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___raises ___raises
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___folds
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___double-bets ___raises ___folds

Total pot: (16.90 SB - $84.50)

[Andy B]

Raise third, fer cryin' out loud. You've made the pot way too big to fold on fourth.

[electrical]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise third, fer cryin' out loud. You've made the pot way too big to fold on fourth.

[/ QUOTE ]
What would a raise on Third with a 5 in the door accomplish? It would probably get called twice and bloat the pot. I was expecting an opportunity to raise on Four and get heads-up with likely the best hand.

As played, is the pot really "too big" to fold, given that I'm in really bad shape against any hand my opponent is likely to have? What do I do unimproved on the river, pay off? My total effective odds are then 11:4, and that seems like a terrible price.

[dsaxton]

Reraising 3rd eliminates any weak hands left to act that might be attracted to the increasingly favorable pot odds, and also builds the pot with what is probably the best hand.

On 4th, you're getting decent pot odds to try to fill up even if you know he has aces up or trips (which isn't the case), so you should probably call down and then call the river even if you don't improve because of pot size.

[electrical]

[ QUOTE ]
On 4th, you're getting decent pot odds to try to fill up even if you know he has aces up or trips (which isn't the case), so you should probably call down and then call the river even if you don't improve because of pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]
I mentioned that I didn't think the pot odds were enough to continue here. If you think this pot is big enough, how small would the pot have to be for you to fold it when up against an apparently dominating hand?

You suggest that a straightforward villain might have a hand other than trips or Aces-up here. Given that he has only four cards, completed coming in, capped big bets against my paired door and is not flushing, what else do you think he might have? The only hand I would want him to have is a three flush with the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and I have no reason to put him specifically on this hand.

Please don't say "he could have anything." He isn't a psycho, so he has some hand that warrants this kind of action. What else could it be?

[electrical]

Some things I didn't mention regarding third street might help with the discussion. Look at the exposed cards, and it should be obvious why I didn't raise on Third.

My front is weak, there was already a completion and a call from two Broadway cards, and the little cards yet to act are dead to the extent that they are only going to play (raise or no) if they have hidden pairs or draws -- hands they might very well call two bets with.

The original aggressor and the Queen were probably going to just call, as there had been very little three-betting on third in this game. If the Queen had been in Seat Four and the Jack in seat Six, it would be more likely he would re-raise to kick out the Jack, and then a raise would make more sense.

As the cards lay, I felt that a raise was not likely to fold anybody who wasn't going to fold anyway, and I didn't want to make a huge pot with one pair, when I would certainly get an opportunity to raise (to better effect) on Four.

[cgrohman]

He pretty much can;t have anything but trips or a better two pair unless he thinks you are a very weak player who is overplaying a pair and a three flush. You limped, you paired your door card, and you showed a ton of agression. You are behind. I'd have to run pokerstove to see if you have the odds to continue.

I agree with the limp pre-flop.

[electrical]

Against trips I am about 15 percent to win.
Against Aces-up, I am about 20 percent to win.

Neither of these are justified by the effective odds of a call-down. He would need to have a worse hand at least half the time for me to call down profitably. Anybody think that's going to be the case?

[electrical]

One more thing -- Seat Four is short stacked, and it looks like he's trying to get it all it. Since this removes the possibility that I can get value for a raise if I fill, would you be more or less inclined to give him the action he desires?

[Andy B]

Definitely more. Some folks will just say, "screw it, I'm going all in," so he may very well have one pair. Also, you're risking $16 to win about $100, so that 15-20% chance doesn't look so bad, does it?