AK hitsTPTK on turn. Turn bet too weak?

[PenguinExpress]

[ QUOTE ]
villain's AF is .79. For everyone advocating a call on the turn here, what do you think he could have on the river that he is betting and we beat with TPTK? Based on his AF I'm pretty sure this is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't think an AF read on a villain after only 200-some odd hands is going to be accurate enough to fold TPTK when we are getting 3 to 1 here. I see weak/passive players like this guy make small river bets for all kinds of reasons--as his version of a blocking bet with a mid PP (even stuff like TT, JJ he is not raising preflop)or A9, as a random bluff, whatever. Sure, a bet here from a hand that is lower than a pair of kings isn't a logical play, but he is likely a bad player, and bad players make bets all the time that don't make sense from a competent player's perspective.

Do I think we're good here most of the time? No. But we don't need to be. So I make the call. FWIW.

[niteswmer]

At the time, I had the same thought as PenguinExpress -- that 200 some odd hands isn't enough to really know if villain is a super-passive. This was the first hand we tangled on this session and he was pretty aggressive the rest of the session so those stats may have been misleading but its all I had at the time. I ended up folding, but had a really hard time with the decision. Had I bet more on the flop and turn, villain may have folded or I would have had a clearer decision.

I appreciate everyone's thoughts and responses!