WPX 20/40 - Blind battle, loose peel

[goofball]

I've played with villain a lot, he tries to play well and succeeds from time to time but he seems to not like me and also I think he's on tilt at the moment.

He opens in the small blind, I call in the big blind with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
He bets, I call.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
He checks, I bet, he calls. (had he bet I would have raised)

River J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
He checks, I bet?

[yourface]

to me his turn check looks like a weak draw. I doubt that he would risk giving a free card with a made hand on such a draw heavy board. so the river either gave him a pair of jacks or a straight. bayes says that a straight is more likely, so I think that the river is a check

even if he checked a weak pair to you on the turn, could he make the river call on such a ridiculous scare card?

[greatwhite]

This is an easy check IMO. He's going to have the better hand then you far more often when he calls.

[DeathDonkey]

Easy bet/fold. He has to donk a straight there doesn't he?

-DeathDonkey

[greatwhite]

Bet/fold? What do you think his calling range is?

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet/fold? What do you think his calling range is?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a blind battle. He may call with any pair. Almost certainly with nines. But, mainly, it is safe to value bet because with the flush and straight on the board he'd have to be worried that we would just check behind and he'd miss a bet. So he has to donk either a flush or straight most of the time. We probably would be just checking behind if we had nines or possibly even jacks.

BTW: I don't like the call on the flop. I think we need to raise or fold. This is not a calling hand. We have nothing.