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Old 11-21-2007, 08:26 AM
cowboy billy cowboy billy is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 395
Default Re: three of a kind, not bad: Fill In the Blanks

no, it is very likely for him to have the straight given the previous action, maybe even with a spade draw, which would make quite a few combos possible

the lag would def 3-bet the turn with top set and I'm pretty sure 3 would go in with middle set as well

jacks for the lag seems unlikely given his preflop cc, which makes a rivered set unlikely as well

only 3 type of hands make sense:
- a rivered top two with JT (J9 seems quite unlikely to me given the flop action) but in my experience most players lead out with such a hand on the river instead of c/r'ing
- a rivered straight, possibly in combination with a spade draw, which makes up for a lot of combos
- a total bluff after a missed draw, which would be completely retarded against a player like PJ

add the slight possibility of a higher set and value 3-betting a cr is suicide

+++EDIT+++ and I didn't even mention the obvious fact that river cr's are way more often a strong hand than a bluff
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