5/10 hand I found interesting

[Bartholow]

I have KKJT with 3 hearts, 2nd to act. UTG folds, I raise to 30, folds to SB who calls, BB folds. Don't have a ton of hands with SB but she's seen the flop 80% of the time and has never raised preflop. No real read on postflop tendencies, seems kinda loose? She has 500ish chips, I have her well covered. My image is probably kinda laggy.

Flop is Ad 2d Ks, she checks, I pot, she calls. Turn is Ah. Pot is about 210, she's got 400ish left. What's the plan?

My thinking was she's probably got some sort of draw here, just because there are some decent draws but less ways to have too "made" hands given the cards that are out and if she had flopped something she really liked wouldn't she have to play back at me on flop, as I could have any of those draws and she wouldn't want to have turn come with no information. So anyway, I think about it and figure hard to get called by many hands I beat, maybe I can get a bluff or get her to hit a no-good hand on the river, so I check behind. I guess I was thinking free card is no problem here, especially since she's not deep enough to get away from an ace that hasn't filled. Does that logic make sense or should I fire here hoping a draw will pay to draw dead?

[sc000t]

With your image, I would continue to bet. I fire out $150 here. I think if shes calling the pot bet, she very will could call the turn, and its very likely she has an Ace in her hand. I really don't like checking. By betting this flop, it makes it almost impossible for her to fold the river if she makes her draw or has a dry ace.

A2XX is also a possibility. I would expect her to c/c the this flop vs you and see safe turn cards. Other than that, I think you're ahead and should try to milk some value out of the situation.

[LA_Price]

I'd bet 100-150 and fold if she raises. This is more of meta game thing for me though because I also bet there when I'm not full. If she calls I might value bet on the river some of the time and just check behind some of the time.

[chucky]

I also check turn trying to induce river bluff. If she has A2xx or AKxx you probably cant get her to fold the turn anyway. You write that she is loose, but I highly doubt she would call Axxx on that flop without straight draw, which you have blockers.

[sc000t]

...Ya good lucky getting her to fold the turn with AK.

[Neuman101]

i agree with LA price's idea to keep metagame complications in mind if this is a regular...In position, on a board like this lets say I have QJ108...(suits dont matter)...Ill nearly always C bet with my str8 draws...then when the board pairs ill bet 2/3-3/4 of the pot...Its very difficult to handle for an opponent who is out of position, bc i could have AA, AK, or complete air...certainly she could have an ance, i dont see any opponents with half a buy in not raising this flop with top two pair so AK is not very likely IMO...u will see enough opponents shoving Axxx here and even draws to make a bet here profitable i think

[chucky]

We get to see villian's turn move before we move. I do suspect that villian has straight draws fairly often. However, a passive villian who doesnt bluff much is unlikely to call with draw on a paired board. therefore betting wont earn you more money. Villian has 39% equity with AQxx. If you bet 1/2 pot and call all reraises you need 300/720 or 42.5% equity to break even. Villian needs to have AQxx almost 70% of time to make this a break even scenario.

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian has 39% equity with AQxx.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mind telling me where you came up with this number? The way I see it, Axxx boats up on 10 cards out of 42 (we can't count our sidecards since we don't know if they're blockers or not), so villian's no better than 24% if drawing.

Personally, against a villian who's described as a somewhat bad LAP type, I like a turn check. This is the kind of player who will be able to fold their draw on a paired board, but will have a hard time folding a straight or flush if they hit it. Also, pot control's not a bad idea when AK and A2 are probably both decent possibilities and we'll have a lot harder time telling where we stand on the river if we bet the turn.

[chucky]

board: Ad2dKsAh

Hand Pot equity Wins
KcKhJhTh 61.16% 366,969
AQ** 38.84% 233,031

I ran it in propokertools.com

When I wrote my analysis I misinterpreted data.
My question is this. If villian check-raises us on river do we ever call?
Bartholow never told us what villian does on turn. Bartholow, can I assume villian checks?

[piiop]

cuz AQ** means that sometimes he'll have AQKx or AQ2x or AQAx