Marketocracy: Post your best stock and worst stock so far + thoughts

[Uglyowl]

I know it is early, but there has been some interesting action out there.

My best stock is Conoco Phillips (COP) +3.08%
Worst is Kohl's (KSS): -9.33%

Energy has been pretty easy to profit on it seems as buying on dips in the winter, selling into early spring before prices plunge a little, and buying before the huricanes.

The stocks seem to travel too closely together with the cyclical price of the commodity although the same thing happens with oil prices every year, with great predictability.

At one point soon, I would like to grab the historical prices and find the average return of these guys by month compared to market.

My worst performer has been Kohl's which really threw me for a loop. I was in the stores with my wife and it was bedlem in there, so the disappointing sales was a shock. There is great excitement for their stores opening and their advertisements being released. The earnings warning was very unexpected.

That being said, same store sales are much strong than Wal-Mart and most competitors at 4.6% (compared to 2.2% at WMT I believe). Gotta read more on KSS now, although I will probably add to this position.

[SuitedPair]

I'm actually a portfolio manager for an investment advisor so I will only discuss trades I have closed out in my real portfolio.

With that said I cannot discuss my best trade since I still have the position.

My worst trade so far is short ARO. They reported same store sales that significantly beat expectations. The company also increased earning guidance for the fourth quarter. This was a positive data point for a stock that has done nothing but disappoint investors. Thankfully, I only started it at a 1/2 position. I still think it is one of the worse positioned teen retailers and will keep it on the radar.

[Bubbagump]

If you are only counting since 1/1, the I've got nothing. But I've been researching AEOS (American Eagle Outfitter) since October. Bought in at the beginning of December and am up a little over 13% in just over 30 days [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Good fundamentals, lots of cash, no debt and no love from the street. Gotta love it.

Bubba

[Uglyowl]

Standard & Poors has the DCF value at $30

Total Debt (mrq): 0

American Eagle posted a 9.8 percent rise in same-store sales, nearly triple Wall Street estimates of 3.3 percent, and maintained its fourth-quarter earnings outlook.

[shagjohn]

Best: Go PZZA! I'm a financial illiterate, so I guess it's safe to talk about my current holdings. I bought in when it broke thorough 45 the 2nd time back in September (bought @46), then doubled down at 50, and have just been riding the wave. The reason for buying was purely technical. It's up 8% since the 1st it looks like.

If I had stuck with my originial buying plan, I'd have been set (buy on every 4-5% increase), but then I got scared. Stupid emotions... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Does anyone else use this strategy?

Edit: Oops, forgot the worst. Still short on NKE. Saw a 3yr technical pattern that didn't complete (yet). I should probably buy to cover, but now I'm just being stubborn.

[buffett]

[ QUOTE ]
buy on every 4-5% increase

[/ QUOTE ]
what kind of stops do you have?

[shagjohn]

[ QUOTE ]
what kind of stops do you have?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still working that out. Right now I'm trying to make a habit of setting trailing stops between 4-8% depending on the volatility and my confidence. On a strong consistent trend I'll make it tighter, and on stocks with more range I like to open it up a bit. I'm really new at this though. All ideas/criticisms/insights are welcome!

[Mr.K]

Strongest performer -- AAPL at up 4.46% since buying it a few days ago. Nothing original about this buy.

Worst performer... well, I don't have any terrible performers as yet in my long portfolio. I did set up a separate short portfolio and put a short on RMBS. That was a pretty egregious mistake -- -28.5% return in just four days. I was sure that they'd have negative news coming from the courts in yet another of their questionable infringement cases, and found today quite the opposite. D'oh.