Full house, what about river?

[LarryLaughs]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 ($32.55)
CO ($41.85)
Hero ($62.30)
SB ($48.50)
BB ($87.85)
UTG ($48.25)
UTG+1 ($19.50)
MP1 ($51.95)
MP2 ($51.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($2.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $1.5</font>, MP1 calls $1.50, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $5</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $5, BB calls $3.50, MP1 calls $3.50.

River: ($22.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $20</font>, MP2 folds, Hero ??

I am thinking about going all-in here.
However, it bugs me that all of the sudden MP1 makes a big river raise when the board pairs up. I would say that my read on the the MP2 is that he has the straight, but what about MP1?

The MP1 is not a fish in my book. He is a solid TAG player, but none too agressive post flop (I put him at PF af ~2). I think he could do this play maybe with 89s, but why did he not raise on the turn? Also, he limped in, so it is likely he had a low pair or a suited mid-connectors. Unsuited connectors are not in his range.

Am I thinking too weak here? I stress that I think MP1 is a solid player and it would be an odd line to make a huge raise that is called only by a better hand if he just has the straight.

[thac]

Bet the flop, you're last to act and the board is insanely draw-heavy. As played though, you called the turn to fill up, and you did, so now you shove.

[LarryLaughs]

I know the flop was a mess. I know I should have bet.

[Nemesis69]

Jup you are letting lots of value on the table on the flop. Lots of draws will pay you.

[whyzze]

thanks OP...now im tilting because I cant vote yet.

in response to the hand...what thac said.

[Jamougha]

Checking the flop is a huge mistake. Obviously MP1 has a higher boat.

[Spurious]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking the flop is a huge mistake. Obviously MP1 has a higher boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's not that obvious...
MPs line looks a lot like a straight, he got 89 and wants to maximize his value.

[Quester]

You lose this to exactly 14 combinations - 66 (2 combos), 77 (2 combos), 55 (1 combo), 45 (3 combos) Edit: I left out 65 and 75, which have 6 combos each. That brings the total to 20 combinations you lose to.

You beat many more than that. He could have 89, for the high straight, which has 16 combos.

Based on this alone, you should at least call. Of course, there are other hands in his range as well, including things like 78, two-pair hands, 23, etc. You are killing all of these.

Push.

[argy1182]

Right on the money

[LarryLaughs]

OK, just for the math part that is a push if you consider that he'd do that with the straight. However, I consider his play (raise to 20) to be a mistake because it would be called only by a full house or very specifically 89 (and not necessarily even that). What worse hand will call that bet on a paired board?

If he is a good player, that move is just crazy.

So, I'd have to push as I am assuming he made a big mistake.