25NL, maximizing value with top set

[cheburashka]

Villain is 17/7/3, but only over ~30 hands. I am playing at 16/11/2.

UTG ($12 in chips)
UTG+1 ($33.15 in chips)
UTG+2 ($4.95 in chips)
MP1 ($5.95 in chips)
MP2 ($26.85 in chips)
CO ($10.60 in chips)
BU ($16.65 in chips)
Hero ($23.30 in chips)
BB ($34.30 in chips)

Hero is SB with Ah Ad

Four folds, MP2 raises $0.75 to $1, two folds, Hero raises $2 to $3, one fold, MP2 calls $2

Flop ($6.25) Ac 4s 8s

Hero???

I understand that there are two spades on the board, but I’m really trying to see fewer monsters under the bed when I’m HU, so I want to focus on maximizing value here.

My thinking is: Assuming he’s been paying attention, he has to put me on JJ+/AK, so he is probably on QQ+/AK given his stats. Also assuming he’s been paying attention, he has to know that I lead here ~95% of the time with any hand I raised pre-flop, including JJ-KK.

So, do I lead here and hope he calls with AK? Or check and count on his aggressiveness?

I’m worried that given how I play, a check here practically announces that I have AA.

[Chargers In 07]

Bet $3.50. Enough for him to think you have KK/QQ and play back at you.

[chopsticks]

Definitely bet here. With that ace on the board you wont probably get much value from possible JJ-KK so its unnecessary to give him a free turn and have less spots on the hand to make money. Bet here and hope he has AK and raises you. You could also get a call from hands with no ace like QQ in case he puts you on a c-bet with air.

[chopsticks]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet $3.50. Enough for him to think you have KK/QQ and play back at you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Imo weak bet in a spot like that looks strong rather than weak. Although typical NL25 player cant think these things through its best to bet almost a pot here to make your hand look weaker and so youd like to take the pot right away without seeing the turn.

[SABR42]

If you always bet here (which I think is bad) then bet here as well.

If you check here with other hands sometimes, you can check as well. /thread

[RapidEvolution]

I think the lead is best and I like betting near the pot in line with what chopsticks has said. AK is calling you here for sure. If he sticks around, I'm not sure if I like leading or c/ring the turn better. Maybe someone else can fill that part in. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the lead is best and I like betting near the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]Why are you betting pot?

I'd c/r the turn alot of the time because it's unlikely he has an Ace or a draw and shoving the river isn't going to be an overbet if you bet $5 on the flop.

[chopsticks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the lead is best and I like betting near the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]Why are you betting pot?

I'd c/r the turn alot of the time because it's unlikely he has an Ace or a draw and shoving the river isn't going to be an overbet if you bet $5 on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check-calling/betting the flop and check-raising the turn is nothing else but a set. Goodbye maximizing value with your set.

Straightforward gaming at NL25 is imo way better than fancy play. Using psychological aspects in a game where your opponents think only very little only loses value in the long run. People at microstakes have seen wpt and wsop and they expect to be slowplayed so doing the opposite and playing solid abc is the key for success at NL25.

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
Straightforward gaming at NL25 is imo way better than fancy play.

[/ QUOTE ] ldo?

Why is betting pot best?

[chopsticks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Straightforward gaming at NL25 is imo way better than fancy play.

[/ QUOTE ] ldo?

Why is betting pot best?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because weakness = strength and youll get max value from AQ+ anyways if you bet the pot. It may not be the best line against certain villains but against a random NL25 player it is best to bet the pot with your goodies right away, but this is just my opinion.

As I already stated before, typical NL25 player awaits to be slowplayed. While making a weak bet isnt actually slowplaying it looks suspicious and scares away some of villains range in this kind of situations. This is true especially if you tend to bet the pot in that situation if youre holding AK.

So imo - betting the pot in this kind of situations is best. You wont get much action from JJ+ anyways but youll definitely get stacked by AK. You also make spade draw pay maximum since most of NL25 players pay off anything to hit their draw. If you bet weak and there happens to be a spade draw, you wont get the full value when river comes a blanco and villain is not ready to bluff his missed draw.