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#12
08-14-2007, 10:20 PM
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Re: Set facing river checkraise
I'd call, but not with much certainty that I'm ahead. The only hand we're worried about is a flush, and this would be a terrible way to play a flush. However, the C/R looks awfully strong. You raised UTG, slowed down only when the flush came, and then bet the river -- from Villian's perspective, you could (and in fact do) have a very strong hand.
Bottom line, it's either a terrible bluff, a terribly played flush, or a badly played smaller set. 2/3 of these are favorable, so call. If I had to pick one, I'd say the smaller set, because I think that would be less terribly played than the others. Another way of looking at it is call for the same reasons you bet the river -- you don't think Villian has a flush. 
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#13
08-15-2007, 01:10 AM
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Re: Set facing river checkraise
[ QUOTE ]
I think the naked A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] does this enough to make it a call. [/ QUOTE ] Not many A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hands get to this river. Either bare A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] floating OOP in a three way pot or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9x. I think this is a fold. It is a lot more likely he checks two streets with a flush than gets to this river with a worse hand and c/r bluffs the river.
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#15
08-15-2007, 03:52 AM
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Re: Set facing river checkraise
This is a fold. He has a flush.
He's not doing this with a lower set. There are flushes and straights on the board! Also, you have to value bet this river. He might call you with a pair/2 pair/worse set.
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#16
08-15-2007, 03:54 AM
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Re: Set facing river checkraise
[ QUOTE ]
I failed to mention this was a 50r not a freezeout. Also I've had people tell me betting the river here is bad. Wtf? [/ QUOTE ] Who the hell said that? When did we reach a state of check raise paranoia where we should never bet when we're not liking getting check raised?
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#17
08-15-2007, 03:57 AM
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Re: Set facing river checkraise
[ QUOTE ]
i think in spots like this its fair to say people are almost never bluffing. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. It's a great spot for a bluff but he'd have to be good and think that we are good to check-raise bluff the river giving us these odds. [/ QUOTE ] the reason i think you have to call is he might be trapping you with a smaller set. [/ QUOTE ] No. That board is way too scary for anyone to be slowplaying a set.
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#18
08-15-2007, 05:42 AM
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Re: Set facing river checkraise
To any of the people saying call....
I'd love to see a single hand history where a noname in a 50$rebuy+100$freezeout on stars check raised the river as a bluff after the turn went c/c. I don't think one exists. The river is a clear b/f, although myself and many others love to take the b/c/berate line. the only problem is they never show up with a bluff here, ever.
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#19
08-15-2007, 05:50 AM
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Re: Set facing river checkraise
[ QUOTE ]
To any of the people saying call.... I'd love to see a single hand history where a noname in a 50$rebuy+100$freezeout on stars check raised the river as a bluff after the turn went c/c. I don't think one exists. The river is a clear b/f, although myself and many others love to take the b/c/berate line. the only problem is they never show up with a bluff here, ever. [/ QUOTE ] This. Also, why the hell does the As matter? Who the hell folds any flush on this river? Why would not having the stone nuts matter at ALL? Also to the guy who advocated checking behind: No.
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#20
08-15-2007, 05:51 AM
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Re: Set facing river checkraise
Lol at checking the river. Seems pretty weird to check a flush here twice, but that's really all it could be. As was previously stated, if he was going to bluff, why wouldn't he just be out? Is he so sure you're FOS that he's squeezing more chips out of you in a elaborate bluff play?
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