Variance is Fractal

[onesandzeros]

You cant get a truthful picture of the "variance" of a thing unless you have the mean to that thing. If you do not document wins/losses and keep stats then you have no way of calculating your mean, variance or EV (unless you are annette_15).

(fixed variance) example: The mean (long run) win rate for AA vs KK HU seeing all 5 cards is 83%. A measured sample over say 200 games of a win rate of 72% is variance. The more sessions, or iterations the closer you get to the true "mean" of that thing. The mean is the truth of an equation. In this example the mean was the win rate of AA vs KK HU while seeing all five cards.

There is (fixed) variance (odds), and there is variance of your theoretical "edge" (dynamic) and tilt (dynamic)....

By using solid bankroll management, variance will rarely have you lifting an eyebrow unless you've been on tilt.

It often makes the hair on the back of your neck stand on end with or without tilt!