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#1
10-22-2007, 03:08 PM
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Set, flush hits on turn, villan pots
<font color="blue"> Villan is unknown. What should I do? </font>
Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter CO: $21.17 BTN: $78.22 SB: $16.77 BB: $54.06 UTG: $50 Hero (MP): $60.18 UTG posts $0.50 Pre-Flop: 5  5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, 4 folds, UTG calls $2 Flop: ($5.75) 9  2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 (2 Players)UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.25</font>, UTG calls $4.25 Turn: ($14.25) 7 (2 Players)<font color="red">UTG bets $14.50</font> 
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#2
10-22-2007, 03:21 PM
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Re: Set, flush hits on turn, villan pots
Assuming UTG has a made flush: if you think villain will stack if board pairs, you're getting implied odds of ~4:1. With 10 outs you have ~20% of the 25% equity that you need. Aside from the flush he's repping, villain could have Ac9s or something like this and be playing aggressively, in which case you're clearly ahead and should call if not raise. If villain had 77 you just got into big trouble. Overall, I think you could probably call with the hope of getting a free showdown, but you'd be putting in a large portion of your stack in with the intention of folding to a push, which seems like a bad idea. I think that this play is marginal either way, so a call and a fold probably net you similar EVs and neither is a very bad play. Folding is definitely the safest.
Since this is an unknown and you've only about 15% of your stack, I'd fold/reload and wait until you figure out his game a little bit. He's to your immediate right, so you'll have plenty of chances to get your $7 back.
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#3
10-22-2007, 03:22 PM
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Re: Set, flush hits on turn, villan pots
wow, that's so strong for vil, sometimes i like to make plays like this when posting, but unless you've got a read that he's does this before i think you almost def beat.
but there's 30 more behind, and if you're confident of him stacking off and if you think he's even 30% of the time doing this without a flush then you're 50/50. i don't trust posters that much so i think i'd call cry when i missed my boat and fold the river to his push
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#5
10-22-2007, 04:38 PM
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Re: Set, flush hits on turn, villan pots
I think calling is best here as if you push youre turning your set into a bluff. Once you push the worst hes calling with might be a straight. I see villains take this line with a modest holding that either got slightly better, or a pair trying to protect. None of those will call a push tho, so I would rather call and see what the river brings. If another club comes you can easily fold, if the board pairs you can push, and if he bets I would probably fold as there arent many villains willing to double barrel a board like this with air.
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#6
10-22-2007, 04:40 PM
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Re: Set, flush hits on turn, villan pots
I don't think pushing gets anything accomplished here. You have no fold equity and there is a chance, however small, that you are behind here. I would just call the turn and call basically any non-club river.
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#7
10-22-2007, 04:42 PM
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Re: Set, flush hits on turn, villan pots
There is no argument for folding this a blank river to an unknown here? It seems pretty aggro to me for an unknown to bet twice into you on this board after you should strength pf and on the flop and then called the turn as well. Seems like an optimistic stretch to think we are ahead here on a river bet.
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#8
10-22-2007, 04:45 PM
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Re: Set, flush hits on turn, villan pots
[ QUOTE ]
There is no argument for folding this a blank river to an unknown here? It seems pretty aggro to me for an unknown to bet twice into you on this board after you should strength pf and on the flop and then called the turn as well. Seems like an optimistic stretch to think we are ahead here on a river bet. [/ QUOTE ] It's uNL. People are capable of doing really stupid [censored]. And this villain has already shown himself capable of that, by posting when he is UTG. I'm never folding this.
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#9
10-22-2007, 04:49 PM
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Re: Set, flush hits on turn, villan pots
I guess you could make an argument for folding any river that is a club, 6, or 8 but that's about it for me. I don't give someone a lot of credit that posts UTG first hand at the table. To me that says bad player right off the bat. If he does have the flush and we have shown strength the entire time, why not go for the check raise instead of betting pot into us on the turn?? Just seems like he is hoping for a fold from a hero holding big broadway cards or an overpair.
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#10
10-22-2007, 04:50 PM
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Re: Set, flush hits on turn, villan pots
I didnt even notice him posting utg, which shows he is an idiot, but enough of an idiot to justify this?
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