Oops I got CR'd... what now?

[Lefort]

So I was in my Financial Risk and Stock Portfolio Analysis class and boredom ensued, so obviously seeing the references to equity and expected values led my thoughts to poker theory..

5/10, $1000 eff stacks

Folded to you in the hijack with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and you make it $40. BB (22/18 regular) calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (pot = $85)
BB checks, HERO bets $70, BB raises to $250.

Ruh roh!

Alright, this is obviously a "player dependent situation". But lets not cop out completely, and do a bit of analysis.

Analyzing the line of calling and "re-evaluating turn" is much more complicated than analyzing shove/fold so for now lets assume that our two options are to shove or to fold. We can work in the calling option later.

Second of all, lets define a range of hands where villain is doing this for value with intentions of getting all-in (calling a shove). Keep in mind that these must all be within villain's preflop calling range from the BB in this spot.

Hands he would want to felt here are presumably: 77, 55, 75s, A7s, A5s, 86cc, 98cc, 64cc, 65cc. I think we can safely assume that if he did check-raise top pair for value, he's folding to a 3bet shove without metagame... but if you don't buy that, then we'll just assume he doesn't CR TP for value. Due to the fact that he might fold/3bet some of the suited junk in this range, we'll say he can show-up with them 75% of the time he's dealt that part of the range by leaving out a hand.

PokerStove tells us we have 24% equity against his felting range on this flop. By shoving we are putting up $890 to win $1115 and thus need 44%+ equity so assuming he never CR-bluffs here, shoving is bad. How bad?

How Bad = 0.24*($2005) - $890 = -$406.60

Now lets look at the other scenario after you shove... he folds! In this situation you will win exactly the pot of $405.

He folds = +$405

The numbers (coincidentally) indicate that you need your opponent to fold atleast half of the time you push for this play to be profitable.

So when does he fold? Well.. we are assuming that if he decided to check-raise a weaker draw (flush/straight draw) he will fold to a push. (He'd be getting roughly 38% equity so we'll assume he plays *correctly* and folds out the weaker draws). He might also choose to CR weaker pairs to "see where he's at". And most notably, he's going to sometimes CR complete air. This is where the "player dependency" comes into play. Everyone and their grandmother knows that the pre-flop aggressor is going to fire a continuation bet most of the time. So some people (and some of their grandmothers) counter this by CR-bluffing players with high (possibly, too high) CB%s. This CR-bluff% is what we want to know. My personal intuition tells me that this stat ranges very much from player to player, yet our typical HUD stats don't give us much to base a decision on.

Nevertheless, we can still fiddle with ranges and numbers to get an idea of what %'s look like in our given situation.

PokerStove tells us that the villain's flop felting range (that we determined) is 2.1% of the total range (ie. any two cards) that he can dealt.

So now lets give the villain a pre-flop *calling* range in this situation where we raised from the Hijack with no other callers. This is again a player dependent spot but I think we can hammer out a reasonable range, and the fact that some people will opt to fold/3bet some of the hands in the range yet possibly add other hands means that the overall range% will still be roughly the same across the board. If we give a range of: 22-99, ATs-, AJo-A7o, 65s+, KTo+, K6s+, broadways.. (again obv I'm missing some but thats to counter the fact that some of this range might get folded/3bet).. and fiddle with it we see that a reasonable range is 15-19% of the possible dealt hands, so we'll say 17%.

So villains range on the flop before he CRs is 17% of the combinations. After he CRs, if he's never bluffing (always felting), he is at 2.1% of the combinations. That is to say, 2.1/17 = 12.4% of his flop range is CR-felting for value.

So for villain to fold (be CR-bluffing) more than 50% of the time, he needs to be CRing you here more than 12.4 x 2 = 25% of the time.. (half of the time he's felting, half he's bluffing and folding..)

This post doesn't have any clearcut conclusions about "what to do" or "when to do it" but I think it atleast gives some tidbits into what type of thinking you should be doing about situations like this. It might also get you thinking about optimal CR frequencies from the villain's perspective.

[mused01]

Hm, is it just me or is his calling range from BB too wide? I'm not saying it's wrong, I'm just asking if I have leaks for folding too much in BB. AJo-A7o, 65s+, KTo+, K6s+ seems really wide imo. Granted it's a raise from highjack, but I'm very very tight in the bb and I have yet to see any regular call with A9o or the likes in bb.

Am I simply folding too much?

[TA3]

77, 55, 75s, A7s, A5s, 86cc, 98cc, 64cc, 65cc: this is the range of non-bluff hands that villain can possibly be CR'ing with. That does not mean villain will check raise all the time with those hands (sometimes b3b, sometimes c/c for deception). Because of this, I am not sure about the statement regarding that villain will be check raising 25% of the time, as that is an insanely high number.

[Lee_C]

[ QUOTE ]
77, 55, 75s, A7s, A5s, 86cc, 98cc, 64cc, 65cc: this is the range of non-bluff hands that villain can possibly be CR'ing with. That does not mean villain will check raise all the time with those hands (sometimes b3b, sometimes c/c for deception). Because of this, I am not sure about the statement regarding that villain will be check raising 25% of the time, as that is an insanely high number.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea...it seems that he would on CR maybe 30% of the time he has those hands which is 25% of the time.

[Lefort]

Sorry I failed to mention that we're assuming he CR's with those hands 100% of the time (as opposed to c/c'ing or b3bing..)

The 25% is a result of the analysis.

mused: I had it a bit smaller and realized after talking to some people that 10-15% was probably too small so I added some more hands and they happened to be A8o as opposed to suited gappers, doesn't much matter I was just trying to arrive at a reasonable %.. (17%)..

[Pudge714]

When I read the OP I thought you were going to say you were bored and started onetabling when this hand came up.
I think preflop range is fine from a percent standpoint, but a little too ace and suited king heavy I see why you did that because creating preflop ranges is boring and painful. Also you should take A7o out of his preflop range unless you feel he will only c/r top two when he is suited.
Obviously this is theoritical and easier to show with perfect information, but your example basically proves that calling the flop reevaluating turn is best since you have such terrible equity against his flop calling range.
Turn is obviously a function of stuff like how often he will two barrel what turn cards hit if he can c/r stuff like 68hh or kqcc, etc. the other thing that sucks is AK is near the top of our range here so it kind of sucks to be folding it.

[ahnuld]

Meh I think we can throw in some AQ's and Aj's that will stack off here. Especially AQ's

[Lefort]

Good points pudge.

And yeah ahnuld I realized that like half way through and didn't bother fixing it... probably would increase our equity from 24->27% ish..

[DJ Sensei]

on a board like this we can definitely expect him to put in more chips on the turn when behind, way moreso than say an A82r board. Precisely because he can put us on a draw or a weaker ace and valuebet worse hands or try to bluff us with the second barrel. Or if an obvious draw gets there on the turn, he can continue bluffing when he has some other draw or air. Air certainly makes up a reasonable part of a 22/18's range here, though some sort of semibluff is probably much more likely. but if he's semibluffing the OESD and the flush comes in, he's very likely to bluff it, obviously.

So, I think call and call/shove just about any turn is a pretty reasonable plan, and gives him the best chance to put a lot of money in whether he's ahead or behind. If he checks to you, don't check back.

But, clearly i'm erring on the lazy side when it comes to actual math here. Except to say that your hand range is too wide, almost nobody is showing up here with an offsuit ace worse than AT or a suited king below KT.

[Lefort]

[ QUOTE ]
But, clearly i'm erring on the lazy side when it comes to actual math here. Except to say that your hand range is too wide, almost nobody is showing up here with an offsuit ace worse than AT or a suited king below KT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but they might show up with an offsuit connector and sooted gapper the odd time.. I was just trying to gauge a %frequency that they'd be calling preflop and decided 13% was too low, 17% was more reasonable. What hands you add to reach that number are irrelevent.

Open up PStove and throw in what your range is there and see what % you get, just for [censored] and giggles.