Folding an overfull to river minraise

[wazz]

No notes on villain. 21/1.8/2.2/100 hands. High river aggression factor (5). Does anyone really dislike my turn bet, or my river bet-sizing? Is river c/c better against this guy?

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $71
UTG+1: $249.15
CO: $525.30
Button: $168.65
hero: $419.40
BB: $220.30

Pre-flop: (6 players) hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG (poster) checks, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button calls, hero calls, BB (poster) checks.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($12, 6 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $12</font>, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($36, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $32</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($100, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $90</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $180</font>, hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $90 returned to UTG+1.

Results:
Final pot: $280

[chucky]

Turn bet is fine. On river, I would check call because flushes are a significant part of his range and there is no reason for him to believe that you have a full house because you lead into a large field with a straight out there and a flush draw.

[TheRempel]

I don't get why you would fold when he has such a high aggression factor on the river. He is either bluffing cause he thinks you have a straight or he has any of the possible boats/quads, most of which you beat. Of course the minraise is scary because it looks like quads but barring some kind of superread you have to get it in.

On the river I'd probably bet less for value and to induce a shove, but now that you've gotten him raising you when he's got like $50 behind, set him in. The only way you can possible fold is if his raising range is exactly AA/JJ and he's never bluffing.

[plzbenice]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get why you would fold when he has such a high aggression factor on the river. He is either bluffing cause he thinks you have a straight or he has any of the possible boats/quads, most of which you beat. Of course the minraise is scary because it looks like quads but barring some kind of superread you have to get it in.

On the river I'd probably bet less for value and to induce a shove, but now that you've gotten him raising you when he's got like $50 behind, set him in. The only way you can possible fold is if his raising range is exactly AA/JJ and he's never bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is he bluffing with?

[TheRempel]

KT, AQ, pretty much anything if he thinks Wazz is too aggro. Villain really was pretty dumb and made small 3bets and folded to a 4bet on paired boards a lot. He also called a lot with really weak hands like top and bottom pair on monotone boards.

[Hattifnatt]

good fold, he most probably has them aces.

aggressive factor on a specific street (not preflop) after &lt;200 hands can pretty much be ignored.

[grizy]

[ QUOTE ]
good fold, he most probably has them aces.

aggressive factor on a specific street (not preflop) after &lt;200 hands can pretty much be ignored.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can I have your crystal ball?

[crashwhips]

[ QUOTE ]

aggressive factor on a specific street (not preflop) after &lt;200 hands can pretty much be ignored.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT. I have been burned more times than I can count by using skewed AF stats from not enough hands.

Also, bet % and raise % of a specific street is generally a better measure of how someone plays than aggression factor imo.

[praios]

i call the river

[cmyr]

I hate the river, since your hand is pretty disguised. He might just be trying to get value with a flush against what he thinks is a flopped straight.


Any chance you were tilting during this hand? It's just an odd line. I mean obv AA or JJ makes sense, but so do quite a few other hands, and it looks like a pure pot odds question.