NL25 (8 MAX): Trip Ks facing AI on flush turn

[ymu]

No history with villain. He's only just sat down and this is the first hand he's played.

It's an 8 MAX table with 20 euro buy-in, so more or less NL25 FR.

I nearly folded this pre-flop, being UTG, but it's so pretty and my raises were getting a fair amount of respect so I went ahead and raised it. Here's the hand:

SB (33.72)
BB (23.49)
Hero (38.50)
UTG+1 (11.65)
MP1 (11.19)
MP2 (22.26)
CO (22.30)
Button (20.00)


Big blind is 0.20

Hero was dealt: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero raises 0.80, 4 folds, button calls, 1 fold, BB calls

Flop (2.50): K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, Hero bets 2.30, button calls, BB folds

Turn (7.10) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets 5, Button raises to 16.90 (all in), Hero???


Is this a weaker K or a PP bluffing the diamond (and my weakish turn bet) often enough to call against an unknown?

A few dozen hands later, and villain is shaping up to be tight/passive/passive (10/2/0.5/59). Should that make it an instafold, sample size notwithstanding?

[Leviathan101]

Personally, I feel that raising KQs UTG isn't a bad play.
I think you can call or fold here vs an unknown. I think it depends whether not or not you're willing to gamble. I'd call here, because you have redraw possibilities against 22, TT, and a flush, and you are beating every king other then AK. After seeing their stats I would be more prone to folding, but the sample size is still kinda small.

[crookdimwit]

Call.

Villain may have some weaker King and is just as scared of the flush as you are. You could easily be up against another KQ, KJ, or K10... AK maybe, but wouldn't we most often expect a random opponent to raise with AK on the button?

If he had the flush, wouldn't he more likely just call here and try to suck you in further? Why would he risk scaring you off the pot with a push? Meanwhile, if he happened to catch the flush, you still have ten outs -- the case K, 3 Q's, 3 2's, and 3 10's...

[ymu]

Thanks. Very reassuring.

I did call, but I felt (and still do feel) very uneasy about it. His line looked like a monster or a stone cold bluff - I'm not sure if I'm tending to put too much weight on stone cold bluff in these situations.

[SubaruSTiMike]

Would a King actaully push all in or call and reevaluate on the river? I feel a weaker King wouldn't push, because hero has shown a lot of aggression, a bet on the turn, obviously he's not scared of the King's or the flush. I feel like he has the flush more often then not

[lippy]

Instacall. Range is huge.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
Would a King actaully push all in or call and reevaluate on the river? I feel a weaker King wouldn't push, because hero has shown a lot of aggression, a bet on the turn, obviously he's not scared of the King's or the flush. I feel like he has the flush more often then not

[/ QUOTE ]
I was raising and c-betting a lot - villain may or may not have noticed this in the few hands he'd check/folded so far. I figured a weaker K might have been trying to draw me in by flat-calling the flop, then panicked when it saw the flush hit, or maybe had a decent diamond kicker. I've seen a players do this with a PP - they often seem to have trouble believing a c-bet on a paired board. I could play JJ/QQ/AA this way too, so a bluff has a decent chance of working, especially if I don't hold a diamond.

It's really close - getting only 1.5:1 it's hard to put a plausible range into poker stove to make it a call. If I'd known anything at all about villain at that point, I would have folded for sure. I was feeling very very sick about the call for a while - and felt sicker every time I looked at his stats firming up.

He had 22. I sucked out with a T on the river.