#1
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TT raised on raggy flop
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter Hero (CO): $28.60 BTN: $30 SB: $41 BB: $25.35 UTG: $13.65 Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO) UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds Flop: ($2.05) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $6.15</font>, Hero ??? Do I peel one here or just fold? There aren't a lot of 2nd best hands that raise here except maybe A9/T9/98. However, it's also a raggy board and he has LAG stats. Villain is running around 28/25 |
#2
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Re: TT raised on raggy flop
I prob call and c/rai non diamond turns.
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#3
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Re: TT raised on raggy flop
I guess I will just respond the same why I pm-ed ya. I crai on a non diamond turn all day against this villain. He seems decently aggro so he could easily be making this move with diamonds or a 9. I dont want to push weaker 9's off so I will let him hang himself a little bit. Pushing on this flop could get a weaker 9 to fold, meanwhile if villain puts in two decent size bets he might feel committed by that point and pay off with a hand he normally wouldnt have. If a diamond hits the turn and he has a 9, he probably will have to check behind unless he has a strong diamond to go along with it.
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#4
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Re: TT raised on raggy flop
[ QUOTE ]
I prob call and c/rai non diamond turns. [/ QUOTE ] I like this line |
#5
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Re: TT raised on raggy flop
What's your line if there's no FD on the board?
You realize that when he calls our preflop raise, his range that includes diamonds is only like 2% of 25%, or around an 8% chance that he's holding diamonds here. |
#6
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Re: TT raised on raggy flop
That is why I also spoke about the top pair hands. Why pressure him if he holds a nine here? I should actually change what I said a little, Im not going to crai on a 9 turn either obviously.
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#7
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Re: TT raised on raggy flop
I'm going to run through an analysis here, assuming he has a pretty broad range of calling a PFR from the button.
The range will be broken down into the following: - hands that crush us - hands that are about even with us - hands that we crush Total range that's capable of a raise here, not including bluffs: Crush Us: 33,55,99-AA He's slightly ahead (big draws) Adxd, KdTd-KdQd, QdTd-QdJd, JdTd, 7d6d, 8d7d, 6d4d Hands we're ahead of: A9,T9,98o The problem here is that almost any flush draw also has extra outs against us in the form of overcards or straight draws. I think a fold might actually be better here. Let me play with poker stove and see what I can come up with. |
#8
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Re: TT raised on raggy flop
You're really underestimating how often a player like this will have a naked flush draw, straight draw, or complete air when he raises a cbet on this board.
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#9
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Re: TT raised on raggy flop
Youre forgetting K9,97, and possibly J9. With his stats, it could even be 88/77 thinking that you did not connect with this flop.
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#10
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Re: TT raised on raggy flop
Hail: What naked flush draws here don't also include overcards or a possible straight draw?
Complete air is also DEFINITELY in his range though, which leans me towards a call / reeval on turn line here. |
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