#11
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Re: .50/1 weird flop donkbet
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not criticizing the play, but your statement, "The value in the push then becomes protecting our hand from him outdrawing us to two pair on the the turn." is incorrect because he can have draws which are going to call, and he could also bluff you out. [/ QUOTE ] The previous hand against him made me thing that he would usually fold a lone jack, which is what he has here much of the time, but call if he happens to have anything better than that, or a draw which would make it a coinflip or worse for me, such as a hand like 456x. When I made that comment, I meant I am rarerly getting him to put his money in badly here, but the pot is big enough that the value I get from the combination of the times he folds and the times we are flipping outweigh the the times he flopped the joint and I get reamed. If we smooth call the flop what turn cards would he be able to bluff us of on? An ace, or a 7 perhaps. But even on these cards I would be inclined to call, since we really cant be sure where we are once we just call the flop. I was also advocating a push for the reason that just calling the flop is bad because it leaves us with a messy a turn decision and allows him to improve to a disguised hand and put the rest of the money in as a favorite. |
#12
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Re: .50/1 weird flop donkbet
I just call his raise preflop and fold to the donk bet as played.
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#13
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Re: .50/1 weird flop donkbet
[ QUOTE ]
I just call his raise preflop and fold to the donk bet as played. [/ QUOTE ] Can you say why do you play it this way? |
#14
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Re: .50/1 weird flop donkbet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I just call his raise preflop and fold to the donk bet as played. [/ QUOTE ] Can you say why do you play it this way? [/ QUOTE ] I tend to just call preflop with almost all KK-hands even in position even though reraising here is not a big error in any way sinse your hand is pretty coordinated AND you have position. OOP or somewhat worse sidecards I def prefer just calling. also, 3-betting a hand like that makes the pot much bigger and can make you make a big mistake later in the hand. and you really dont mind one or both of the blinds coming along (for ex hitting a set over set). I am MUCH more likely to 3-bet a pair-less well coordinated hand with mid cards here. on the flop I think you are crushed or in very bad shape way to often for getting all the money in to make a raise +EV and I would just give up. |
#15
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Re: .50/1 weird flop donkbet
I think folding the flop is OK, and maybe the best play against an unknown, but with even a slight read that villain is fishy and not a nut-peddler this is a push.
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#16
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Re: .50/1 weird flop donkbet
[ QUOTE ]
I think folding the flop is OK, and maybe the best play against an unknown, but with even a slight read that villain is fishy and not a nut-peddler this is a push. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree unless you have a huge read and even then folding might be better. putting in 120bb with just an overpair with no draws are generally just stupid. if you have a read that he is some huge donk you can get in your money in much better shape. |
#17
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Re: .50/1 weird flop donkbet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think folding the flop is OK, and maybe the best play against an unknown, but with even a slight read that villain is fishy and not a nut-peddler this is a push. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree unless you have a huge read and even then folding might be better. putting in 120bb with just an overpair with no draws are generally just stupid. if you have a read that he is some huge donk you can get in your money in much better shape. [/ QUOTE ] Now that I am thinking about this hand again I did have a pretty strong read on the villain here and an intuition my KK was good. Obviously regularly getting your stack in with naked overpairs in Omaha will kill you, making this an unusual spot, but a weaker villain leading into you heads up for around half the pot almost never seems like it is a set. If he has a set here, it is a pretty tricky and good play if he puts me on an overpair, since even if he sucks he should know I will frequently c-bet. I read his bet here as a 'weak-lead, lets see if I am good line' and not a 'I hit that [censored], now lets see if we can induce a push from an overpair by representing a weak-lead.' |
#18
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Re: .50/1 weird flop donkbet
Like iggy said, this is really opponent dependent.
Against a complete unknown I'd be inclined to fold here since villain has a pretty legit wide calling range (including AAxx, if he got the balls). Good read on hte push though. |
#19
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Re: .50/1 weird flop donkbet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think folding the flop is OK, and maybe the best play against an unknown, but with even a slight read that villain is fishy and not a nut-peddler this is a push. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree unless you have a huge read and even then folding might be better. putting in 120bb with just an overpair with no draws are generally just stupid. if you have a read that he is some huge donk you can get in your money in much better shape. [/ QUOTE ] Now that I am thinking about this hand again I did have a pretty strong read on the villain here and an intuition my KK was good. Obviously regularly getting your stack in with naked overpairs in Omaha will kill you, making this an unusual spot, but a weaker villain leading into you heads up for around half the pot almost never seems like it is a set. If he has a set here, it is a pretty tricky and good play if he puts me on an overpair, since even if he sucks he should know I will frequently c-bet. I read his bet here as a 'weak-lead, lets see if I am good line' and not a 'I hit that [censored], now lets see if we can induce a push from an overpair by representing a weak-lead.' [/ QUOTE ] sounds somewhat like result oriented thinking and I am quite confident that your push is -ev even on this dry board and with your read that he's a little donkish. |
#20
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Re: .50/1 weird flop donkbet
I think you have a good read on your opponent and were able to make good decisions. The problem with the logic in this hand in a vacuum (which is the way I'm primarily analyzing it) is that a lead in general terms is at least SOMETHING. If he is capable of leading here with one pair like a jack I personally do not see why he is not capable of fake weak leading/leading with a decent draw, or calling a raise and bluffing the turn. I guess I always overanalyze these thing but I think your read is superior to ours and you went with it.
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