Clev to win AFCN

[psuasskicker]

Take a look at the Browns remaining sched:
@StL, Sea, @Pitt, @Balt, Hou, @AZ, @NYJ, Buff, @Cin, SF

Compared to Pitt:
@Cin, Balt, Clev, @NYJ, Mia, Cin, @NE, Jax, @StL, @Balt

Balt:
@Pitt, Cinci, Clev, @SD, NE, Indi, @Mia, @Sea, Pitt

Cinci:
Pitt, @Buff, @Balt, AZ, Tenn, @Pitt, StL, @SF, Clev, @Mia

Clev's schedule is far easier than anyone else's, and they're not all that bad a team overall. Their losses were final seconds vs. Oak, and vs. Pitt (starting Frye) and @NE (duh). Their schedule is only tough in that they've got six out of ten on the road, but a 7-3 finish certainly looks doable.

Pitt is clearly in the driver's seat, but have it much tougher with NE and Jax still ahead of them, plus two vs. the Ravens who they played terribly against last year.

Balt is 4-3 vs. their opponents which are 13-32. Their second half opponents are 32-24. It's hard for me to imagine this team finishing better than 9-7 this year. That might be generous.

Cinci is awful, and have some tough games ahead of them. Between @Buff, @Balt, Tenn, Pitt twice, and Clev, they aren't gonna lose three of those? They're done.

Clev to win AFCN
TS just had 7 contracts at 6 and 30 at 8 and I bought them all. Risk $28.12 to win $370. I'm thinking of adding more here as well. Looking around, seems like many sites have this somewhere in the range of +900 to +1000.

How likely is Clev to win the division? Really <10%??? I can't see that. I've gotta think this is more likely around 12% or 13%. 15% with injuries? Between Cinci not being a good team, and Baltimore sucking this season it honestly looks to me like a two team race. Tons of value in the fact that Balt is floating in many books around 20% to 25% to win the division, and I don't think it's anywhere close to that.

- C -

[Nonfiction]

Totally agree that the Browns are at minimum the 2nd best team in this division. The only problem is that Pitts scheduele is almost as easy as the Browns, and at the moment they are a better team. Browns look like they will get around 6-7 or so more wins, Steelers should get about the same. And steelers currently have a better record. But Browns definitely win this division at least 40% of the time.

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
But Browns definitely win this division at least 40% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Woah dude, don't go crazy here...

There's no chance the Browns are 40% to win the division, and if you're gonna offer I'll give you some slack and take FIELD -250 for the max.

Browns are possibly, maybe probably, the second best team in the division. The Steelers are very likely to win the division. But with the Browns easy schedule, no way they're <10% to win it...

- C -

[Nonfiction]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But Browns definitely win this division at least 40% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Woah dude, don't go crazy here...

There's no chance the Browns are 40% to win the division, and if you're gonna offer I'll give you some slack and take FIELD -250 for the max.

Browns are possibly, maybe probably, the second best team in the division. The Steelers are very likely to win the division. But with the Browns easy schedule, no way they're <10% to win it...

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously 40% is an exaggeration. But if the Browns can beat the Steelers in their upcoming game, I really don't see any other "probably lose" games on the Browns scheduele. Seattle would be the best remaining team, but they are very mediocre this year (spanked by Pitt 21-0). No one else on the Browns schedule is good. Baltimore is the only team with a winning record (not counting Pitt)but are still awful. Meanwhile, Pitt has to play @NE, Jax, and 2 vs Baltimore who usually plays them well. If they lose to Cleveland, Pittsburgh could wind up with 4 losses.

[Jazzy3113]

Solid analysis on the browns, but I think your missing what's right in front of you. The Browns themselves. They have an easier road, but I think their inexperience will be their undoing, whereas Pitt and Balt are recent champions.

[Post-Oak]

You should come up with estimates for each team winning the division.

Maybe it will turn out that shorting Balt is where the most value is.

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
But if the Browns can beat the Steelers in their upcoming game, I really don't see any other "probably lose" games on the Browns scheduele.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, I'd say there's a <15% chance they do better than 1-2 in the 3 remaining division games.

[MicroBob]

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Balt - Their second half opponents are 32-24. It's hard for me to imagine this team finishing better than 9-7 this year. That might be generous.


[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]

Pitt - plus two vs. the Ravens who they played terribly against last year.

[/ QUOTE ]


BAL and PIT aren't going to both go 0-2 against each other.
One of these teams has to win each of these games. But I don't think you should start to look at them as 2 potential losses for BAL...and then do the same thing for PIT.

If one of these teams is going to eliminate themselves by going 0-2 in these games then the other one will have to go 2-0 and that kind of hurts CLE since beating just one of these teams in the standings doesn't win the bet for you.

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Balt - Their second half opponents are 32-24. It's hard for me to imagine this team finishing better than 9-7 this year. That might be generous.


[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]

Pitt - plus two vs. the Ravens who they played terribly against last year.

[/ QUOTE ]


BAL and PIT aren't going to both go 0-2 against each other.
One of these teams has to win each of these games. But I don't think you should start to look at them as 2 potential losses for BAL...and then do the same thing for PIT.

If one of these teams is going to eliminate themselves by going 0-2 in these games then the other one will have to go 2-0 and that kind of hurts CLE since beating just one of these teams in the standings doesn't win the bet for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not but someone has to lose them, and naturally they don't only play each other the rest of the year so the outcomes don't hinge on this factor. I think a split between these two is reasonable to assume, and I think it's very reasonable to think the Steelers could lose an additional 3 games beyond this. Assuming Balt loses another 2-3 games is more of a probable than just reasonable assumption.

Post Oak said I should assign probabilities to winning the division between teams. I think that's reasonable and I also think there's great value shorting Balt here. That said, I like the value betting a little to win a lot more than betting a lot to win a little if the ROI is pretty close. Opportunity cost and all that...

Pitt - 70%
Balt - 15%
Clev - 10%
Cinci - 5%
These are approximations of course. I'm actually dealing more with a range. I'm also not entirely sold that Balt is more likely to win than Clev and could consider going 75/10/10/5 or even 75/7.5/12.5/5. Like I said, a range, and I think 10 is around the low end of it for Clev, which is huge ROI at +1215.

I also don't know if you can find +1200 or better on Clev anywhere else. I honestly haven't looked all that hard. I'll see where Bodog is when they reset the line tomorrow. But I do feel kinda lucky to have found this at TS cause I think there's a lot of value there.

- C -

[CardSharpCook]

Take a look at the Browns remaining sched:
@StL, Sea, @Pitt, @Balt, Hou, @AZ, @NYJ, Buff, @Cin, SF

If all these games were played tomorrow.....

I'd set the Browns line at:
-3, ev, +8, +3, -2, +3, ev, -3, +5, -5

or

60%, 50%, 25%, 40%, 55%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 32%, 68%

or

4.75 wins and 5.25 losses. This does not equate to 7-3. Is it possible that they hit 7 wins? SURE!!! but how often will 10-6 win the division anyway? You need to parlay cleveland hitting the outside edge of their bell curve with both Pitt and Bal doing worse. Of course, it does help (or does it?) that Cle plays both of these teams, so the parlay aspect is slightly less, but still.

I need Cleveland to win 4 games to beat their season o/u of 6. So I'll be rooting with you regardless, but still, dude, win the division? Doesn't seem likely.