Middling with vig

[psuasskicker]

Far from the expert here and I don't bet big. I'm mostly just trying to build experience here and learn this year, then get more serious next year and/or the following. I bet through a friend's book and he's only got two so line shopping isn't all that big of an option. Typical bet is placed -110.

So when playing with vig, how big a move should you look for when middling, vs. the value you think the bet has? I think it's obviously an easy math question if you know/have specific probabilities of how often things hit. But I'm a little new for this to be an easy math question cause I'm not all that great prediciting the likelihood a game finishes with certain results.

So I'm wondering if anyone else has thoughts on this. For instance, I thought Buff/Pitt o37.5 had good value early in the week and bet a unit on it, then doubled that when it fell to o37. Paying -110 on each. The line started moving dramatically today and closed at 39.5 -110, offering a pretty huge middle.

At what point should I be middling almost automatically and what's the best way to go about thinking about this stuff for a guy not all that adept at figuring the stats?

- C -

[NajdorfDefense]

Spend the $10 to buy Wong's book. Many details in there and historical stats.
Secondly, use the Pinny drop-down lines if you ever had an acc't there to see how much the extra point[s] or half-point is worth.
I seriously doubt 37/39 is worth paying 10c vig on. A big middle would have been the Ariz/SF line which went from 41 to 47 by kickoff, for example.
Open an acct at betonline to get -105 lines so you're at least getting 40-1 leverage instead of 10/20-1. [ie $5 risk to win $200, for example.] That immediately doubles your EV.

[rjp]

King Yao's book covers this very well.