PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND

[Omaha8sPoker]

This was posted on P5s and I tried to help the OP out but some [censored] morons degenerated it into a name calling battle so I thought it was an interesting hand to post on here and get some real discussion going...The question is CALL or RAISE?? There were actually people who were saying FOLD here...

Seat 1: 2880 in chips
Seat 2: 2140 in chips
Seat 3: 2680 in chips
Seat 4: 2660 in chips
Seat 5: 2920 in chips
Seat 6: 2850 in chips
Seat 7: 2100 in chips
Seat 8: 5170 in chips
Seat 9: 3600 in chips
Seat 2: posts small blind 10
Seat 3: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Seat 1 [Kh Qc 2d Ah]
Seat 4: calls 20
Seat 5: calls 20
Seat 6: folds
Seat 7: calls 20
Seat 8: folds
Seat 9: raises 60 to 80
Seat 1: calls 80
Seat 2: folds
Seat 3: calls 60
Seat 4: calls 60
Seat 5: calls 60
Seat 6: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [7h Kd 8c]
Seat 3: checks
Seat 4: checks
Seat 5: checks
Seat 7: bets 490
Seat 9: calls 490
Seat 1: Call or pot???

I'll post my thoughts tomorrow...

[wiseheart]

Well you have to look at this based on the time of the hand. It is obviously very early judging by stack size, so the raise isn't going to get anyone to fold most likely, so you have to judge how competent seat 9. If seat 9 is competent, then he probably has AA, so you want to call and hope that all the other bad low draws will call so that you can pick up half of a big pot. If seat 9 is sucky then you might want to go ahead and repot.

I would call at this stage, but if this were later I would obviously throw my chips in as fast as possible, with the expection of getting heads up against the PFR who would be raising lower value hands at that stage, to be really honest if I thought seat 9 might be a donk then I would flip a coin to see whether or not to raise or call.

[bbartlog]

I like a call. This allows us to fold if the turn is really bad for us, and might pull in some more callers to give our nut low draw better odds. Repotting also effectively throws away the advantage we have of having position. I think about 2/3 of the deck allows us to continue on the turn (all the remaining A/K/Q, plus the sixteen cards that give us the nut low, and a couple of other hearts that give us the NFD).
For what it's worth, I don't think a fold is out of the question. HU of course our hand is a monster, but with this many callers preflop and two who caught a piece of the flop we're not necessarily in great shape here. No protection for our low and our high needs to improve for us to be good on that side.

[Omaha8sPoker]

See I wouldn't read seat 9 for AA, I would figure if seat 9 has AA with any wheel card he raises here trying to isolate the bettor...If I have AA here I don't want to play a multiway pot, I want to isolate and try to scoop hi/low...

I read the flop bettor as having either a set or two pair, not a low and the preflop raisor as having some sort of A2 that may or may not be naked...Against the range of hands that the preflop bettor has and against the preflop raisors range of hands I think a raise is in order here...Now with that being said I dont think that it is going to get either of them to fold...But I think that the OP has the requisite 33% equity right now in order to continue with this hand and if he can get the preflop raisor to fold to this raise 1 outta 100 times it is +EV for him to raise...

I think the only things you really have to worry about are:
1. Somebody slowplayed a set behind you and reraises all in and the other 2 guys who already put chips in the pot don't fold.
2. The preflop raisor has A256...

Other than that I think a raise here is the play...I'll post results later on today...

[Omaha8sPoker]

I just think that these tourneys are a lot easier to play if you are able to chip up early...I am willing to gamble early in order to accumulate chips so that in the middle stages of a tourney I can take a coinflip or the worst of a 55:45 to 60:40 hand against a short stack and if I lose I won't be crippled...

An example...I called a pot sized bet with 2345 on a flop of A7T in position, as did another person so we were 3 way headed to the turn...Turn peeled off a 6 and I called another pot sized bet which got the pot HU to the river...The river peeled off a Broadway card and the guy who was betting the whole way checked to me...I fired out pot and he mucked calling me a "donk"...But in playing it like that I was able to add almost 50% to my stack early on...Would I call this flop in a cash game?? Most likely not, but in a tourney I'll gamble a little and see if I can drag a pot if the initial bettor slows down because I know a good portion of my opponents are weak-tight and will muck without the nuts...I do risk being quartered but its a risk I'm willing to take...

[Borys313]

This looks like a spot where you are predestined to get quartered alot. Just look how many people called.

I assume that at least one person has A2 in their hand and when it comes to high hands something like 654 or 88 is very likely to be out there and is going nowhere. I know the game plays loose preflop in this, but cmon the whole deck is out.

So your chance of winning hi is very miserable and for low its about 40% (hiting and not geting counterfeited).

So just dump it (in limit i call of course).
Fold.
Fold.

[Jorge10]

This is the definition of a trap hand. The guy who is betting most likely has some sort of set because even if he is stupid he isnt that stupid. Most players even the most horrible ones assume AA when someone raises. If seat 7 is betting out in this spot its usually a set. He knows seat 9 has aces and he is saying, I can beat that and I dont want any more cards. Seat 9 might have A2, but he might not. There is a possibility that he got stubborn with AA4 or even AA5 because he has aces and most players have a hard time laying that down. I would probably call and take a turn, but I would expect the raiser to have something like A24X and the bettor to have something like 88XX or KKXX. If you raise here you are just burning chips. Any hand that will get out with your raise you would have probably wanted in. You dont want something like KQ23 or something along those lines to go and that is the only type of hand that would fold to a reraise here. KK, 88 and 77 are going nowhere and A2 is going nowhere and the betting indicates both of those hands are out there so why would you reraise?

[Omaha8sPoker]

Jorge, I think you are wildly overestimating the level of play in these tournaments...

[Borys313]

Its not about the players but the random distrubution of cards. One pair isnt the nuts 6-way at least most of the time.

[franknagaijr]

I'm gonna respond like a P5 moron, and defend the fold. Even though I probably don't have the will power to fold here:

1) We are behind on the high.
2) We have nut low draw, but no counterfeit protection.
3) The action does not close with us.
4) Potting this will probably not drive out any other A2, and any other A2 may have counterfeit protection.
5) Our backdoor draws for high are weak.

I don't hate a flat call, but I do hate a repot.

BTW: What was the buy-in on this tourney, and was this STT or MTT? Both of these affect the right decision.