ABS 3/6: AA in big blind agaisnt MP3 open raise

[Ricks]

Tyler,

I'm assuming that if SB called the turn with a draw, there is a 6 in his hand more often than a 3 or an 8.

[tyler_cracker]

having arrived at the turn with A8 or A3 or A6, villain isn't folding any of them. there are twice as many available combos of A8 and A3 as there are of A6.

just a quibble about your hand reading.

[Ricks]

The problem is my ability to read the amount of money in the pot on the turn.

[TPR]

If he bets the river, I call. If he checks the river, I bet, because if he lucked into the straight, he wouldn't want to risk missing a bet on the river, so if he checks, chances are he doesn't have the straight, and he doesn't fear you having a seven if he did hit it. If he has a seven, he also wouldn't want to miss a bet on the river.

[Niediam]

Preflop:

I have aces duh raise.

Flop:

A very good flop for me. If the flop was something like T62 I would have definately raised hoping that MP3 reraises and knocks out the SB. But on this paired flop it was much less likely that the SB paired one of his hole cards and was drawing to five outs (even if he hit a 4 he can't pair his kicker and win because I have aces up) however, it is possible he has a gutshot with something like 85. The most likely scenario by far though is that the is drawing to runner runner and I shouldn't be too worried. I was hoping that if he was able to pick up a pair on the turn he was bad enough to automatically go to showdown.

I see two potential drawbacks to this:

1) It would be horrible if I checked the turn and both villians checked behind. I thought here though that the chances were fairly good that MP3 bets the turn. Once he caps preflop he is almost always going to hold either a big ace or a big pair. But because I have two of the aces so the chances of him holding a big pair is much higher than usuall. If I had KK I definately would have raised on the flop. I hoped that I also might be able to get more money out of MP3 but not letting him know I had a huge hand until the bigger street.

2) The SB picks up an OESD or flush draw on turn. Obviously bad if he hits on the river. Maybe not quite as bad as it might at first appear as I doubt he will fold if me and MP3 are able to jam the pot.

My point here is that if we put MP3 on 99+/AQ+ and SB on any two that isn't 44 or has a 7 in it then our equity is 87.4%. I wasn't terribly worried about being outdrawn but was trying to figure out how to get more money in the pot. But perhaps getting aggressive early would accomplish that anyhow if MP3 has KK/QQ...

Turn:

A bit of a crappy card but I certainly assume I'm still ahead. Time to get busy. I was certainly surprised that MP3 bet/folded here.

River:

Yucky. My first thought was that four to a straight sucks but if were to bet the pot was too large to fold to a raise so I just took the safe way out. In retrospect I agree I should have bet for value. Once SB checks it becomes less likely that he holds the straight. If I were OOP I think check/call to try and induce a bluff may have merit against some villins.

[sometree]

My thoughts.....

I would have out right c/r the flop. Mainly because I'd want to win it right there. No reason to dick around when the next card off could give some one a draw worth playing, not this early in your session.
I don't mind the check/call here at all though. It would be a smarter move if you had some thoughts behind it as to how the players act. But waiting till the turn to make a move works. Its my second choice.

The turn check raise I think is choice. Though again without knowing the guy would bet again.. You got lucky. Other wise he could have checked through to a free card. So maybe betting the turn would be wiser.

The river...
No that the main bettor is out of the way, you have just this one guy, who has been limping his way through... now against a tricky player, I would have checked it down, but since you said you feel he has no clue, I would very much bet out. He could be calling down with pocket pair or AK or
AQ. If he check raises then you have to decide if he could have hit a 6 and thinks you were pushing AK hard....
I would probably strongly consider a bet/fold.