Gin

[armynixon]

I was discussing this theoretical hand with a friend of mine. It is early in the game, and your opponent has just laid down a K, giving you three Ks. Your hand now consists of the following: Ad 2c 3h 4s 5c 5d 7c 7d Ks Kh Kd, so you must discard one. What is the best discard?
First of all, It can't be the A23 or 4, because they create a great four card spread for a quick knock early in the game. Of course it isn't the kings either, so it is either one of the 5s or 7s. This is where the confusion lies. Does it even matter which card you lay down? Decreasing deadwood at this point in the game shouldnt be a primary concern. Furthermore, sevens are the most valuable card in gin because of their extension value or ability to block off other runs when in a set. On the other hand, your opponent is unlikely to give up a 7 for the same reason. Unless your opponent is a highly defensive player, he likely wont give up a five at this point either. He/She likely holds very high cards (based on your hand and the rule of fourteen) and would be throwing off supefluos high cards in an attempt to decrease deadwood and use them as salesmen. I think that in the end the best card to throw town is the 5c. Your opponent is unlikely to pick it up (you hold the 2c and 7 c as well as another 5) and you open up the middle zone to discards.
What are your thoughts here? Am I missing some angles here? Am I mistaken?

[Edenfield99]

In the long run it probably does't matter a great deal which you throw. Each 5 or 7 can only be used to make your opponent 3 melds, so, like most poker questions of this type where there is probably very little differance in each option, it would depend on my opponent. 5c is probably my choice (and I'd hope he follows the adjacent card/different suit rule and throws the 6d). I too may be missing something here though so any more ideas anyone????

I can see how your hand means he probably has high cards (you have high - he has low and vice versa) but how does the rule of fourteen work here? Is it that your hand average is 6.4 so his should be 7.6 (ie higher cards)

[armynixon]

You're right edenfield, the rule of fourteen does not work here. I realized that after I posted. But since the topic was raised, let's get into some math in order to deduce your opponents' hand early on. I figure you are a numbers guy because you have a poker/backgammon background and post on 2+2.
Anyway. First of all, you stated that the average point value of a card in gin is 7. Not to split hairs, but it is actually 6.54. the point average of the sample hand is 5.8 because there are 11 cards in the hand. Since reducing deadwood is not the primary concern at this point unless your opponent has a terrible hand, he likely has an average of 7.3 or so, which is pretty high. So with this information, I'm trying to find out as much information about his/her hand as possible.
My guess is that the opponent would not throw the K down so early unless he was A) using it as a salesman or B)Just made a meld from the stock. The odds of B) are very slim, so let's go with A. This means that he likely has something like QQJ with the jack suited to one of the Qs. He/she would either hope for another K to come down or for a Q (with the safety in discarding theory being used here). So that might account for about 30 of 73 pts. with three cards. Since we have two fives, you can take a leap of faith and speculate that your opponent might have two 9s, maybe even one as a gutshot to the jack. now we're up to 48 with five cards. Now it becomes extremely tricky.
The next five cards will average around 5, but he/she is unlikely to have many fives or sevens. This person would also be unlikely to give up a valuable 6 (extender) this early on. let's say they have a 6. I would say there is a good probability of them holding something like two fours, even though you have one. They could also have an A or a 2, meaning that they could get a four card run plus another for a quick knock, which fits in. The last card could be something like a suited 8 or a 9 to complete the meld.

Disclaimer: This analysis is wildly speculative and built on the basis that the numbers will average out. There will be freak hands where both players have very low or high averages. However, figuring out this type of information early on is essential. If you can figure out his/her hand before he can figure out yours, you control the hand.

What kind of comments do you have Edenfield? Of course I know that it's extremely premature to have someone's hand set in stone, but i think that this type of process could be very helpful. What other techniques do you have, besides the read of your opponent? In what other ways can math be applied at this stage of the game?

[Edenfield99]

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First of all, you stated that the average point value of a card in gin is 7. Not to split hairs, but it is actually 6.54. the point average of the sample hand is 5.8 because there are 11 cards in the hand.

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Of course, last time I try even basic maths while watching tv!
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Since reducing deadwood is not the primary concern at this point unless your opponent has a terrible hand,

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A couple of the players I play with would discard a K here to reduce deadwood if it was a useless card

I don't think I'd go as deep as you do in the rest of the post that early in the game, One of my poker weaknesses is to put people on a draw at PLO and then discover they are slowplaying trips v my two pair, I think I'd have the same problem here. I would most likely assume he has a higher average than me and then narrow down his holding depending on the play from there. Earlier on in the hand I find knowing my opponent to be more important, I would apply the math later when I'm deciding to go our or play for gin etc. This may be a consequence of only playing with a limited number of opponents.

[armynixon]

Good points made Edenfield. As for your friends consistently discarding Kings at the start of a game if it doesnt fit into their hand, this is a beginners move. Unless all cards are wild and it seems to be an offensive hand, Kings should generally be thrown closer to the middle of the game.
Your assessment that knowing your opponent is crucial early on too, so that you could know whether they are the type of person to drop a king as a salesman or just hate hanging on to high deadwood.

[armynixon]

Clearly the four card spread can be very important in gin. However, if you only have two (say an A and a 3) of the four four discards into the game and your opponent throws down a four, should you pick it up? The rest of your hand is very offensive, and you have a pretty safe discard, but are you better going to the stock here, as you are most of the time? The other parts of your hand are a meld and a triangle., a relatively safe discard and a wild card.

[AtTheMovies]

the people in this thread [censored] rule. i thank all of you. ANY gin discussion kicks so much ass because i've yet to buy a book + strategy online is nonexistent. i feel like such a noob but the stuff in this thread has already helped me. thanks a lot.

[pj4533]

Seriously, thanks alot for this thread. I havn't read any books yet, and have just learned the rules last weekend! I am a total noob. Although I have read, and understood most of this thread.

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First of all, It can't be the A23 or 4, because they create a great four card spread for a quick knock early in the game.

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I don't get this....could someone explain why the unsuited run of a234 is good? Is it just that they are low cards? Why does this "goodness" stop at the 5? Why is the suited run good for an early knock....I could see if you had As 2s 3d 4d but why the suited situation mentioned above?

Thanks in advance,

-pj

[Edenfield99]

A, 2, 3 , 4 is a good holding whether they are suited or completely rainbow. This is because they add up to 10 and can be used for what is called a 'knock meld'. In the standard game you can knock when you have 10 or less so you are looking for two proper melds and a knock meld so you can go down. Any combination of cards that total 10 or less is your knock meld