5/10 My set is doomed, save the bet on the end?

[spex x]

Comments on all street appreciated, but mostly the river call.

EP is pretty nitty, MP is new to the table. I was CO. EP raised, MP reraised. I called with 10 10. maybe I should have popped again, but I liked the set value in position. (10.5 sb).

Flop K J 6 rainbow. Everyone checks. Turn is 10, no flush draw. EP checks, MP bets, I raise, EP cold calls, MP folds. (10.25 bb). River is 9. EP leads, I call.

Board = K J 6 10 9

Edit: I guess I should include my rationale for calling on the river, since this is the major mistake, if there is one. I figured that given that i was getting 11.25:1, the opponent doesn't have to misplay AA or AK very often for me to show a profit. Since he'd been playing pretty tight, I thought maybe he might have misplayed a hand like that for value and then gotten carried away on the river. Every once in a while at least. So I called.

[Hobbs.]

fold or cap preflop. this is probably a fold. I'd play postflop the same though.

[HollywoodDB]

Can we fold TT preflop here? Maybe Im too tight preflop.

I call the river expecting him to have a Q, but I think villian has 2 pair or even some weird bluff enough to justify a call.

[wingo]

Cap it preflop

[argybargy2002]

EP cold called 2 bets on the turn and leads on the river? Looks like AQ to me.

Still, does he have a Q, KK, or JJ more than 1 in 10 times? That is the question. You say he is a bit of a nit. Most nits I know wouldn't bet a river where there is one to a straight, so if you trust your read enough, this is one of the rare times you can safely make a good river laydown in a big pot.

I think its close either way but I'd lean towards a fold.

[spex x]

I guess I should include my rationale for calling on the river, since this is the major mistake, if there is one. I figured that given that i was getting 11.25:1, the opponent doesn't have to misplay AA or AK very often for me to show a profit. Since he'd been playing pretty tight, I thought maybe he might have misplayed a hand like that for value and then gotten carried away on the river. Every once in a while at least. So I called.

[Bluffoon]

[ QUOTE ]
fold or cap preflop. this is probably a fold. I'd play postflop the same though.

[/ QUOTE ]

[SeaEagle]

PF is meh. I like a fold but I doubt there's much equity difference between the 3 options.

River is a pretty easy call IMO. You only have to be good 8% of the time and I'd think you're against a bluff or 2 pair enough to show a decent profit on the call.

BTW, what hand range are people putting villian on here? AQ is out since villian would have gotten a bet or raise in on the turn. KQ is unlikely, since villian would have needed to check top pair twice. Possibly a weakly played QQ or QJ? (both of these should have bet the turn and QQ probably caps PF). There's only 1 T left to make QT and it's a pretty weak hand to be raising UTG anyway.

When I can't find a logically played hand for my opponent, I always assume they're bluffing more than 8%.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I should include my rationale for calling on the river, since this is the major mistake, if there is one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Coldcalling preflop is more of a mistake than your river call, especially since you rationalized your preflop call previously by stating that you were playing it "for set value,"(??) getting only 2:1...meh.