Probability Issues with Party Poker

[Ebonwoulfe]

The more hands of poker you see, the more likely there will be a stretch of time where the small-probability things all seem to start happening.

Improbable is very far from impossible.

And plus, if online casinos were rigged, word would spread. If people thought it was rigged, then people would leave the site. If people leave the site, they are out of business. I assure you, they don't want to lose their business.

[TheHip41]

OMG, IT'S RIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGED.

Thanks for the heads up, I'm withdrawing now.

[David from NYC]

The big thing here is that you noticed the "strange" occurrence <u>after</u> the fact; this is what makes it not so odd. For example, take a look at the latest PowerBall drawing - the odds of that number being drawn is VERY slim (millions to one), but you do not bat an eye. Now, lets say that you picked a number beforehand, and that number came up. Then you would be pretty surprised (and rich, if you had actually bought the ticket). I do not know if I am making myself too clear here, but in a nutshell, when something "weird" happens, think of all the weird things that did <u>not</u> happen, and in aggregate, the weird thing is not so weird.

[agoldenbear]

While I appreciate some of the responses to my post, others, like this guy's, are not only inflammatory, they are a waste of everyone's time. If you have nothing productive to say to a post, you must be a sad person indeed to reply with some pedestrian joke that no one will find funny. Oh, you saw three blue cars drive down the street? What are the odds? Maybe you should lie down in the street and take a closer look.

If you don't have anything relevant or insightful to say, you're wasting everyone's time.

[AlienBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
Over the last 4 days I've played at most 2000 hands at small stakes tables on PartyPoker.com. .... I have seen ONE ROYAL FLUSH that someone hit on the river, as well as TWO STRAIGHT FLUSHES,

[/ QUOTE ]


*you've seen*... not you've "had".

so that's 2000 hands times 10 players, is 20,000 hand instances. Odds of a SF are about 1:81,000, and for a royal it's 1:650,000


So while somewhat less likely, it's easy to see it's notimpossible.


HOWEVER,

I did notice that when I first signed up to Party, that winning was ultra EASY for the first few days.

Then it got reasonably challenging.

THEORY: Party stacks in your favor as a new member, so you get "hooked".


AB

[alul]

[ QUOTE ]
While I appreciate some of the responses to my post, others, like this guy's, are not only inflammatory, they are a waste of everyone's time. If you have nothing productive to say to a post, you must be a sad person indeed to reply with some pedestrian joke that no one will find funny. Oh, you saw three blue cars drive down the street? What are the odds? Maybe you should lie down in the street and take a closer look.

If you don't have anything relevant or insightful to say, you're wasting everyone's time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think exactly opposite. This is you wasting everybody's time (including your own). If you just used this website's search engine, you would find hundreds posts like yours and there would be no need for this post.

[agoldenbear]

to clarify, one of the straight flushes was mine --- I held QJ of diamonds and flopped 9 T K.

[AlienBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
to clarify, one of the straight flushes was mine --- I held QJ of diamonds and flopped 9 T K.

[/ QUOTE ]

As it was only one, it's not that remarkable. If you *personally* had all of those hands, then yea, it's be weird.

AB

[cabbagehead7]

actually, I found it very funny. I enjoy the wit of the posters that not only give great advice but also can berate without mercy......isnt poker grand

[ncboiler]

[ QUOTE ]
Given a long enough timeline...



[/ QUOTE ]

...the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.