The Illustrated Guide to No-Limit Hold'em mini review

[brianpower]

Im really tempted to buy this book, sounds quite humorous.

[Leavenfish]

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2) Down to two shorthanded tables of an MTT with hero having an M of approximately 4. Payout to top 5. Hero is UTG and has JJ. The book advocates that we should either limp or raise to 2BBs and that we should fold if a big stack decides to put us all in preflop.

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First of all, no where does he say that we "should fold if a big stack decides to put us all in preflop"...only that you would be faced with that choice or to call so the big stack ($9.1k) do this.

Lets see: you have 6.4k, are way out of position, the blinds will rise from $500/$1000 to $600/$1200 in 10 min, the three people- each with half our stack size- to our left will be blinded away in 3 rotations, and you have good chip standing (3rd of 12 overall at the moment). I assume you would go all-in instead?

With the blinds consuming one and about to eat up those 3, one of those to my left could well chose this moment to play any high card. The BB is down to 1k so you know he is likely to be in. The odds are terribly good that an A,K or Q will hit the board at some point, if not the flop. JJ is the last thing I would want to have in this position though vs any random hand it isn't bad.

Is this really what you want to go all in on in this situation?

I would prefer to toss the JJ, get to the right of those 3 to my left ( who individually have half the chips I do ) and see if I get a playable cards against them with favorable position.

I don't think the gamble to pick up more chips at this moment is as important as the chips you could lose at this point.

---Leavenfish

[Leavenfish]

Seriously, Niedam...what would you do? What would anyone do...

---Leavenfish

[Niediam]

It's a pretty easy push preflop unless you are trying to set up some kind of trap but that is a bit risky with JJ.

I think where your thinking goes wrong is that its much more +EV to try and finish in the top 3 or so places in a tournament then to just try and make the money. Hero here is in serious jepardy of blinding out here and needs to accumulate chips. The fact that he is in the top X% of players or that a couple people have to put their money in the middle in the next round or so is lately irrelevant. If Bob, Joe, and Mark all bust soon it doesn't change the fact that we are about to bust soon also... get your money in when you have a huge edge!

[Matt Ruff]

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2) Down to two shorthanded tables of an MTT with hero having an M of approximately 4. Payout to top 5. Hero is UTG and has JJ. The book advocates that we should either limp or raise to 2BBs and that we should fold if a big stack decides to put us all in preflop.

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First of all, no where does he say that we "should fold if a big stack decides to put us all in preflop"...only that you would be faced with that choice or to call so the big stack ($9.1k) do this.

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Here's the set-up:

Twelve players left in a multi-table tournament, top 5 places pay. Six players at Hero's table.

Blinds: $500/$1000

Stack sizes:
Hero: $6400
UTG+1: $3200
CO: $3300
Button: $3100
SB: $9100
BB: $1000

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero...?

Purdy writes: "Certainly you're not going to fold this hand, so what you have to decide is how aggressive to get... The real problem for you is [the small blind], who has a larger chip stack. Whatever you can do, he can do better... I'd play this fairly cautiously by either betting just 1000 chips or raising only to 2000. This gives you an out in case [the small blind] comes over the top of you and goes all in. At that point you can decide whether to fold and lose only 1000 or 2000 chips, or call his all-in bet."

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Lets see: you have 6.4k, are way out of position, the blinds will rise from $500/$1000 to $600/$1200 in 10 min, the three people- each with half our stack size- to our left will be blinded away in 3 rotations, and you have good chip standing (3rd of 12 overall at the moment). I assume you would go all-in instead?

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In a heartbeat. Folding is obviously wrong, and Purdy's suggestion that we limp or minraise to leave outselves an "out" in case SB comes over the top is absurd.

The follow-up problem assumes that Hero takes Purdy's advice and just limps. CO and SB call, and BB checks. The flop comes A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Purdy writes: "You've got trouble facing you fourteen ways from Sunday after this flop. First, an Ace hit the board, the worst overcard you could have seen, and you have to believe that at least one of your opponents holds an Ace, which means you're already beaten. Second, a pair of 2s arrived, and if anyone happened to stay in on Ace-2 suited, you can turn out the lights..."

Yes, that's a great reason not to push preflop with pocket jacks. Someone with ace-rag might call you and flop a full house.

[Leavenfish]

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In a heartbeat. Folding is obviously wrong, and Purdy's suggestion that we limp or minraise to leave outselves an "out" in case SB comes over the top is absurd.


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Why? and Why?

---Leavenfish

[Matt Ruff]

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In a heartbeat. Folding is obviously wrong, and Purdy's suggestion that we limp or minraise to leave outselves an "out" in case SB comes over the top is absurd.


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Why? and Why?

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Why #1: Because JJ is probably the best hand.

Why #2: Given the size of the blinds, if we limp (or minraise) and SB does come over the top, we can't reasonably give him credit for AA, KK, or QQ, so we're going to have to call him anyway. That being the case, we might as well push.

[Leavenfish]

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In a heartbeat. Folding is obviously wrong, and....


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Why? and Why?

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Why #1: Because JJ is probably the best hand.


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Why #1: Because JJ is probably the best hand.

That's about what I expected.

You do know that you do not always go all-in with a 'probably best' hand don't you--that it can even not be the best move? This is a percentage based pay out tournament you are in and you are third in chip position overall...and about to gamble on JJ...

It is important to note that you are under the gun so you have the absolute worse position possible and you have opponents who are so short stacked that they are itching to play should an A, K or maybe a Q (plus good card) reach their hand(s). Heads up against one random hand you might be okay (64.4%) ...but against more? I don't think you are going to get heads up as I don't' think all three to your left are going to wait for the blinds and potentially have to play something like 7 2o; so I wager at least one (in additon to the BB) will call our all in, possibly two. All-in UTG smells like a middling pair trying to be protected anyway. You may be getting more play that your JJ can stand with 2 or more callers. It's an unnecessary risk.

I am not sure that each chip you ( might ) add is as important as each chip you save at this stage of the game since they are changing value so quickly here. If you lost to anyone in seats 3-5 (against seat 7 your are history) you have gone from 6500 to 3200-3500 and will then be in
the situation seats 3-5 currently find themselves in - only worse as your next two hands cost you 1500 in blind money, almost half your stack. Clearly this is a major decision and I think it deserves more thought that the knee-jerk 'I probably have the best hand, I should go all-in'. I simply think there may be a beter way...I'm not so sure you need do anything here. I certainly don't think tossing JJ deserves the shallow comdenation several gave it. There is still some poker left, you have good chip position relative to most everyone else and plenty of time for things to happen...and things WILL happen. Keep your chips and look for a better situation.

Like I said, my first indication was to go all-in, it may or may not be the correct play...but it could be your final play.

---Leavenfish

[Niediam]

I'm going to jump all over the place and just address various things in your post. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

It's ok to 'gamble' with JJ because you are about to be blinded out of the tournament. It would be totally different if you were deep stacked. In HoH Vol. 1 Dan explains that it's usually -EV to go all in with QQ early in a tournament with a full stack but in Vol. 2 he explains how it can be +EV to go all in with 22 when you are shortstacked and about to be blinded out.

The fact that you are in 3rd chip position is irrelevant - you are about to be in knocked out of the tournament if you don't get some chips. Does it really matter if we go out in 9th instead of 13th?

Being OOP encourages pushing preflop. All positional disadvantages are nullified when the money goes in preflop.

JJ does even better than you think against a random hand but I'm not sure that this matters as people usually won't call with two cards.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 77.4695 % 77.15% 00.32% { JcJd }
Hand 2: 22.5305 % 22.21% 00.32% { random }

If players will call loosely like you suggest JJ still has a snignifcant advantage. Here is the results if you are called by one person with any two broadway and pairs down to 77.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 63.1975 % 62.60% 00.59% { JJ }
Hand 2: 36.8025 % 36.21% 00.59% { 66+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Even if your opponenents would only call with premium hands a push is very +EV as you will frequently pick up the blinds and antes.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.1836 % 49.22% 00.96% { JJ }
Hand 2: 49.8164 % 48.85% 00.96% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

You seem to believe though that our opponents are very loose and we will be called in multiple places. Look at the huge overlay we get if two opponents call with any pair and any two broadaway.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.4282 % 46.02% 00.41% { JJ }
Hand 2: 27.0584 % 26.36% 00.70% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 26.5134 % 25.65% 00.86% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

I don't think you are grasping the fact in your posts and WE are in chis desperation mode. I am not just moving in because I think that JJ is the best hand but because we need the chips in the middle of the pot right now. I'd have no problem pushing much weaker hands than JJ such as any pair, any two 'big' cards, and medium suited connectors.

I know I'm going to sound mean but folding JJ here would be stupid. It's the 4th best starting hand and there is no reason to believe that somebody has a bigger pair. In fact, I'd gladly push still if before you were about to bet if one of the players flipped over AK and said he was going to call any bets.

[Leavenfish]

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If players will call loosely like you suggest JJ still has a snignifcant advantage.

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Thanks for the reply...I play limit, and 7 Stud (mostly) not no-limit - I am only now beginning to try that so I will defer to you. I have HOH 1,2 and 3 and will try and find the relevant passages you allude to.

I wanted to 'pick a small fight' with someone over this all in vs fold point because I could not find a bad argument against tossing the JJ in the given situation.

Yes, JJ is a great hand--I would love to have it 2 or 3 seats down! Yes, there is no 'position' to be considered after the flop. By 'out of position', I was simply saying that our hero was out of position to bet everything UTG. You simply can't be sure how many of the remaining hands might have something dangerous and the more players, the more JJ's value goes down. This all in looks like a scared middle pair and will invite callers eager to double up given their situation, IMO.

You speak about the 'huge overlay' that would occur in a 3 way match-up. Perhaps so, but notice that in your calculations you are no longer the favorite (under 40%) to win the hand and a coin flip against some hands! In your 3-way, we are now slightly more likely to be just as seats 3-5 are chipwise- only in an even worse position because now it is US who will have our stack cut in half by the blinds and have to risk everything immediately. I see this as a gamble that doesn't have to be made yet and my alternative as reasonable. You would say that we are in "desperation mode". If so, 10 of the 12 players are desperation mode...and that makes for a real crap shoot. I would wait and look for a better chance as there is still some poker to be played.

Despite your generous attemt to explain the way you view the situation, I guess I just can't see where the risk vs reward falls on the side of an all in move at this point. When you say you would not have any problem pushing all the way down to 'medium suited connectors' in this situation, It kind of confirms to me that you overstate our peril.

---Leavenfish