NL100 full ring | 3rd barrel +EV?

[chopsticks]

No specific reads on villain but he seems to be very passive. Raises preflop often but doesn't keep firing if he misses the flop. Only one showdown with his KT against villains KJ in K-high board and they both played cautiously. HERO has played about 5 orbits now and is very tagish. No bluffs so far and only one showdown in minimum pot.

If I make the 3rd barrel on the river, is it +EV in the long run? What kind of a range can we put villain on according to minimum reads and action?

Seat 1: UTG+2 ($132 in chips)
Seat 2: MP1 ($96.50 in chips)
Seat 3: MP2($78.90 in chips)
Seat 4: MP3 ($170.10 in chips)
Seat 5: CO ($98.50 in chips)
Seat 6: BUTTON ($141.50 in chips)
Seat 8: BB ($89.80 in chips)
Seat 9: UTG ($93 in chips)
Seat 10: HERO ($121.50 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
BB posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP

HERO (UTG+1) is dealt: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG folds, HERO calls $1, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, BUTTON calls $1, BB checks.

I know openlimping OOP with a speculative hand like this is usually wrong, but the table action had been very passive so far and most of the preflops didn't include any raises. I also do this to make the regular players think I don't have a single clue what I'm doing and why am I holding two cards in my hand.

FLOP [board cards: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] POT: $3
BB checks, HERO bets $2, BUTTON bets $4, BB folds, HERO bets $14, BUTTON calls $12.

Flop is beautiful. I lead here to make the pot bigger and get some info if villains are holding something. Button minraises and I don't know if it's strong or weakness or just plain stupidity, but it looks like he's holding something. I 3-bet here to make my monsterdraw look more like a set, two pair etc and hide it. Villain calls so now it's clear he has something he likes, but HERO still has brazillion outs to make the best hand. I was calculating all the 6 outs for a straight and 8-9 outs for a flush as pure outs to make the nuts. 3-betting here is a standard play, right? What do you think about the size of my 3-bet?

TURN [board cards: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ] POT: $31
HERO bets $20, BUTTON calls $20.

Turn changes nothing and I make the 2nd barrel. What do you think about the size of my bet? I'm still having a bunch of outs to make the best hand and I'm probably winning more than one third of the time. I'm thinking that villain could have 87s or two pairs or something similar as HERO. Maybe just a flush draw. With a set I think he would raise me here although he could be scared about the straight possibility. With a made straight this is a raise here, right?

RIVER [board cards: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ] POT: $71
HERO ? ($86.5 stack left, button covers)

What do I have here when I've played like this? What does villain have? I've played the hand as I would probably play a set, two pairs or a straight so if I make the 3rd barrel, there is a lot of folding equity against hands like 87s and even against a straight. If he has 76/56 or a set I'm in trouble but that's only one part of his range. 3rd barrel here won't be a lot of positive expect value, but in the long run, do I win $$$ if i make the 3rd barrel here or do I lose it all?

So, check-fold or bet?

[chopsticks]

Bump! No opinions?

[AceHigh]

I think the button has a strong made hand and you are just spewing chips.

I would check/fold on the river.

[r2me]

Several things:

1. button called PF raise & your turn bet/reraise.

2. flop is very coordinated...gets worse by river.

I'd check/fold & look for a better spot. The action on the flop strongly suggests that villan got a good piece of it. so his hand is most likely too good to fold without putting all of your chips @ risk on a pure bluff.