5/10 KK river value bet

[psuasskicker]

No real reads on villain. This is on Party on a weeknight. If anyone at the table knows me, I'm 15/10/3.5ish and known to push my hands pretty hard.

Dealt to psuasskicker [ Kd Ks ]
1 fold
psuasskicker raises [$10].
6 folds
Bunkrsht calls [$5].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, Qd, 8c ]
Bunkrsht checks.
psuasskicker bets [$5].
Bunkrsht calls [$5].

** Dealing Turn ** [ 9d ]
Bunkrsht checks.
psuasskicker bets [$10].
Bunkrsht raises [$20].
psuasskicker raises [$20].
Bunkrsht calls [$10].

** Dealing River ** [ 6c ]
Bunkrsht checks.
psuasskicker ???

I think this could be a great bet-fold opportunity, but I think it's pretty thin and am not 100% sure still. I've waffled on this hand a few times over the last couple days.

- C -

[Nick C]

Personally, I think I would take the free showdown.

But I don't think I would have 3-bet the turn checkraise. So, actually, I'd probably be calling on the river instead of checking behind.

[Bluffoon]

Interesting hand. You have represented alot of strength on a pretty scary board.

I like that you werent capped on the turn but I don't see you getting called by anything you beat so I check it down.

[crablegs33]

him check raising but keeping it at 3 is a good sign on turn...
i'm 50/50 between a river bet/check...
i feel a good possibility of TPGK/TPTK here... so i personally would bet/call here...
although i think the bet/fold would probably be better, i know that given the strange way the hand played out i myself would call down the raise and kick my own ass for not taking the free showdown when he show's me J-9 or some garbage like that

[psuasskicker]

I like that you werent capped on the turn but I don't see you getting called by anything you beat so I check it down.

You don't think AQ or KQ (or even QJ) calls a river bet? After he just calls my three bet, that's what I put him on other than maybe a flush draw (lotta guys raise the turn with pair + flush draw, especially if they just picked it up) or a crappy 9 that got spooked.

I planned to fold the turn if he capped it.

- C -

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I planned to fold the turn if he capped it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably sensible, but the turn line as a whole is also an expensive way to toss 4 outs versus JT.

[Bluffoon]

[ QUOTE ]
I like that you werent capped on the turn but I don't see you getting called by anything you beat so I check it down.

You don't think AQ or KQ (or even QJ) calls a river bet? After he just calls my three bet, that's what I put him on other than maybe a flush draw (lotta guys raise the turn with pair + flush draw, especially if they just picked it up) or a crappy 9 that got spooked.

I planned to fold the turn if he capped it.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

I can easily be convinced. I thought about this for a while. There is a straight draw out there and the board pairs and the flush draw came in and you are three betting the turn... That's a tough call for just top pair.

[psuasskicker]

This is probably sensible, but the turn line as a whole is also an expensive way to toss 4 outs versus JT.

This is one of the reasons I think it's only beneficial to three bet the turn if I intend to bet the river. Otherwise, why not just call down...cause it's the same number of bets as three betting and checking the river, but folding to a four bet kills some outs.

The problem is, there are so many good draws out there that if he's on a hand like A8 + flush draw that I wanna charge him when I can. I think if the flush draws and possible straight draws (QJ) aren't out there that calling down if I don't intend to value bet the river is better. But with all those draws, I think a turn reraise is prudent.

- C -

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
This is probably sensible, but the turn line as a whole is also an expensive way to toss 4 outs versus JT.

This is one of the reasons I think it's only beneficial to three bet the turn if I intend to bet the river. Otherwise, why not just call down...cause it's the same number of bets as three betting and checking the river, but folding to a four bet kills some outs.

The problem is, there are so many good draws out there that if he's on a hand like A8 + flush draw that I wanna charge him when I can. I think if the flush draws and possible straight draws (QJ) aren't out there that calling down if I don't intend to value bet the river is better. But with all those draws, I think a turn reraise is prudent.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that a river bet is the consistent follow-up to your turn play.

I don't think this turn is the best spot to raise simply as a free-showdown raise, since you're unlikely to drive out any hand you'd like to. Also, I think your unknown 5/10 opponent will probably fire again on the river with whatever he checkraised with on the turn (including busted draws), whether he improves or not. So if you want to get paid off better by a worse hand, you probably need to bet the river.

Like I said originally, I would have begun calling down after the turn checkraise. But the advantages of taking your more aggressive line instead are probably best realized if you bet the river.