THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH

[tmcdmck]

the reason that "zomfg 3aces" makes you call, yet my approach makes you fold, yet i say there is not much in it is pot odds.

on river villain makes a pot sized bet, so we are getting 2:1 to call. that means we have to be good 1/3 times for a call to be correct. 30% is slightly less the 1/3 times, therefore it is a fold. BUT because there is only 3% in it, a call would not lose you that much, therefore a call would not be that bad. when a decision is really close, it normally makes little difference what you actually do in the longrun, as a close decision means you intuitively feel you are very close to being good the right amount of the time one way or the other.

so basically the nice thing about the "zomg 3aces" approach is that when you call incorrectly, you rarely lose that much (in the longterm), and it saves you from folding incorrectly (which is likely to cost you more due to how often a set of aces is good).

obviously there are flow and instincts, but they are really just an instinctual understanding of the numbers (and if they are not, then quite frankly you have bad instincts). furthermore, since you cant convey those things well in a post, we just have to deal with cold hard maths. i really dont understand why you think bringing maths into poker is so problematic: understanding pot odds is vital to success, and it would be very odd if a player said calculating them was uneccessary and made their head hurt. equity calculations are a more complex example of the same thing.

i disagree that no HUCASH player would be folding the river. I am usually a calling station, but i have folded sets in spots like this.