Is this push + or - EV

[squidladder]

Acording to sklansky chubukov numbers im beating QQ and under but then again wont QQ and under fold to the shove anyway

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $60.30
Hero: $52.25
SB: $52.75
BB: $96.75

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $11.5</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $52.25</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

[bsball8806]

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Acording to sklansky chubukov numbers im beating QQ and under but then again wont QQ and under fold to the shove anyway


[/ QUOTE ]

That's part of the reason why it's +EV. Standard

[Nick C]

Instead of trying to weight JJ-22, let's give Villain a range of AA-JJ and AK and leave it at that (this is oversimplified but probably fairly accurate).

That leaves you crushed 1/9 of the time, a 70/30 dog another 1/9 of the time, and slightly behind or basically tied the rest. This doesn't sound too awful, and you probably do have some folding equity versus AK and the hands you're slightly behind.

If you call instead, what'll usually happen is that you'll miss, Villain will c-bet (sometimes with AK), and you'll fold.

Anyway, the push seems all right to me. Just realize that to a large extent it's a semi-bluff, and, depending on Villain's stubbornness with hands other than AA-KK, you're somewhere between a small dog and a substantial dog if called.

[Arp220]

I guess it depends on villains tendencies, but on average it
looks +ev to me. If villain is very tight then it might be better to reraise to 30, if you KNOW a 4 bet means AA/KK.

[bozzer]

it is +EV but very thinly so against most villains. a better way to play is usually to see a flop, or 4bet 2.5x his raise if you have reason to suspect he's 3betting light.