Time to get sexy?

[gharp]

I'm always looking for spots to try this. How's this one?

It's my first hand at the table and I know nothing useful about the players:

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3SB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="cc3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, SB folds.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2.5BB, 2 players)
<font color="cc3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4.5BB, 2 players)
Hero checks...

[Scary_Tiger]

Value bet. My first instinct when I see someone limp UTG is fish/calling station, so I think they check through with A7, KJ or hearts quite a bit.

[True]

If he checks you win 0, if he calls you win 1, if he bet/calls you win 2. So he needs to bet this 1 in every 3 times for this to be profitable.

If he bet/calls 33% then this is fine, I just don't see it.

True

[gharp]

[ QUOTE ]
If he checks you win 0, if he calls you win 1, if he bet/calls you win 2. So he needs to bet this 1 in every 3 times for this to be profitable.

If he bet/calls 33% then this is fine, I just don't see it.


[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're assuming he automatically calls when you bet and never bluffs when you check. I don't think that's right.

[True]

If you knew his stats then its better. What is villains range and bluffing range?

True

[hitMySet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he checks you win 0, if he calls you win 1, if he bet/calls you win 2. So he needs to bet this 1 in every 3 times for this to be profitable.

If he bet/calls 33% then this is fine, I just don't see it.


[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're assuming he automatically calls when you bet and never bluffs when you check. I don't think that's right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, what about the times when he hits some kind of 2 pr on the river? Then you would porbably get 3 bets instead of 2 by betting out rather than check raising.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he checks you win 0, if he calls you win 1, if he bet/calls you win 2. So he needs to bet this 1 in every 3 times for this to be profitable.

If he bet/calls 33% then this is fine, I just don't see it.


[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're assuming he automatically calls when you bet and never bluffs when you check. I don't think that's right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, what about the times when he hits some kind of 2 pr on the river? Then you would porbably get 3 bets instead of 2 by betting out rather than check raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

The time he raises 2p IMO is low if he has just called the whole way and limped UTg.

True

[POKhER]

[ QUOTE ]
I know nothing useful about the players:


[/ QUOTE ]

Sucky because of the above IMO(and the FD he may have that checks behind).

[gharp]

I'm not surprised that people don't like this, but I'm a little surprised that people don't like it this much. What I was thinking at the time was that he probably has:

(a) an A
(b) a K
(c) a pocket pair
(d) a flush draw
(e) QJ

First, if he has QJ I'm just screwed. It's probably going to be cappped whatever I do and I'm going to lose money.

If he has a flush draw that missed then checking is clearly best since he won't call but he might bluff. If he has an A I think checking is best too, since he's likely to try a value bet and also likely to pay off the raise. If he has a K or pocket pair, betting is probably better since the chance that he'll bet and pay off goes down.

So I guess it comes down to what you think the typical UTG limper has. I feel like people limp A's in more than K's so I weighted (a)+(d) over the others and tried the check-raise. One thing I didn't consider was that a lot of the flush draw hands that limp contain a T (JTs, T9s, T8s, etc) and might make a crying call if I bet. This might tip it too a bet too, if that isn't already the sure play.

[DocMartin]

I think this is a great time to get sexy IF you have a read that they will likely bet a pair or busted draw. Without the read the bet is likely best.