33$ - 22 facing push - learning experience =)

[sence25]

Hi! Figured this was a kinda interesting hand I just played.
So what do you do here, and why?
How loose does he have to push to make this a repush?
Don't cheat with ICM-tools(at least until you thought a bit about this) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP2 (t1520)
CO (t5240)
Button (t4740)
Hero (t1790)
BB (t2000)
UTG (t3180)
MP1 (t1530)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 shoves [t1520] , <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero is thinking about it.

[Jaqrabbit]

Let's say he shoves any two cards. If he's on any pocket pair, you're dominated (he's 82% to win). If he's on any two random cards that don't include a two, you're about 55% to win - if he's suited and/or connected, that eats into your edge a bit, but it's still a race.

If he's got a 2 (unlikely, since you have half of them) and any higher card you've got much better edge (don't know the odds off-hand). If he's got the other two 2s, it's a chop (barring a 4 card flush). This is highly unlikely to the point I'd probably discard the possibility just to make the analysis easier at the table.

So basically, best likely scenario is a race. Given your chip count and the fact that the BB (also a shorty) is yet to act, I think I fold here (if I push, I REALLY don't want to see the BB call behind).

You're definitely in push/fold territory, but given that the blinds just passed you, I think I wait for a better spot.

[sence25]

Also consider I'd not hate a race here since I have to pay 1320 for a 3440 pot(given BB folds)..

[mattiesmat]

I would call for sure.
There is 600 in the pot from blinds, which is 38% of your stack.
MP2 is shoving pretty wide, so unless he has a pair (not a big chance), you are a slight favorite.
So overall you are about 50/50 to win I think.
With his money and the blinds, you have to race here I think.
BB's range will be pretty tight with 2 people in the pot and even if he calls they might have a similar hand, like both an ace.

[Jaqrabbit]

Yeah, I don't hate the push by any means. And the more I think about waiting for a better spot, the less I like it, since you're going to have to make a move in the next 6 hands anyway and the odds of catching a better PP are low.

So yeah, push it in and hope to (almost) double up.

[aces_]

If you were last to act you could start to consider it, here you risk being allin against 2 players. Still as last to act I would fold any time, I am not calling off all my chips with something thats going to run into overpair around 50% of the times.

[mgsimpleton]

At first i thought fold, but his range is massive. Next hand he has almost 1/3 of his stack in the BB, and is pretty much committed, When I'm in his position i push about 50% of the time. Obviously we want BB to fold but I think he folds to 2 all ins enough to make a push the right play.

[Jaqrabbit]

I think BB folds after our shove unless he's got a monster, in which case we're just screwed. The problem with folding here is that we're very short (after folding, we've got 1590, slightly less than 4BB) and we've got only 6 hands until the blinds hit us again - maybe we catch a better hand, maybe not. Right now, we've got a hand that's most likely a race (where we have a slight edge) and a pretty good chance of getting heads up with it. I think we have to take it and hope for the best.

If we were closer to the money, or had a couple more BBs in the stack, I'd say it was a fold for sure, but we need to chip up to stand a reasonable shot at getting paid here, and this may be our best spot.

[mgsimpleton]

Did you end up getting it in? what did he show up with?

[Shrooma]

I ran this through SNGWizard as I thought it was an interesting hand. Default ranges (villain opening 22+, A2+, K9s+, KT+, QTs+, BB calling 22+, AT+) result in a suggested push, but it's only 0.1% difference.

Villain shoving any two (which is too wide of a range IMHO) results in a 1%+ difference for pushing. The worst situation (very tight pusher, very loose BB) results in -0.8 % for pushing (so a fold is better there).

I guess a push or fold is both fine here, depending on different reads you might have. Personally, I would fold here. I don't like the idea of flipping (which is the best case scenario) in a situation without Fold Equity and rather save my chips (over 4 BB gives enough FE) for a hand where I'm the agressor.