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#32
11-25-2007, 02:39 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] anyone betting teasers earlier this week would've gotten nyg-7, jax-7.5, and carolina+3... you have a lot to learn [/ QUOTE ] Is this some sort of sick level? However, I did lose the 2 on Jax. I'm sure the fact I didn't just donk two "half wongs" would more than make up for that fact, but whatev. [/ QUOTE ] pop quiz hot-shot, which is worth more after a 6pt tease: +3 -130 or +2.5 -110? how about -7 -120 or -7.5 -110? how about waiting til the last min and lose jax -9 when they're available -7.5 all week? 
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#33
11-25-2007, 02:45 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 12
and anyone betting +3 redskins and +3 rams would of made a bad bet since they closed at +3 and +3.5
sure if you can correctly predict that it will move to 2.5 by sunday then sure take it early, but i don't think anyone can do that accurately enough to beat just waiting til the end of the week
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#34
11-25-2007, 02:58 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 12
no this is result oriented thinking, the price you pay up front for the teaser is the up-front premium/sunk cost you can never get back. sure if by kickoff the line is +3.5 and you teased them at +3 you took a bad deal at the snapshot in time. however, this is true if you teased the team +1.5 and they finished at +3.5, so this has NOTHING to do w/ teasing a team at +3. +3 -130 has the same value as +2.5 -110, line movement is not an excuse for not teasing +3 -130
this kind of thinking is result oriented as you need to know the end result (+3.5) to figure out that you were wrong when speculating earlier. the theoretical loss from that is more than balanced out by the gain of taking a -7.5 team when they closed -9.5. this is akin to saying that detroit +3.5 -110 is a bad bet b/c g.b beat them by 11, sure if we can see the end result we would never make a mistake for the rest of our lives. also, this where line-movement prediction becomes vital for a capper. anyone who has experience could've seen that wash+3 and caro+3 were moving in opposite directions.
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#35
11-25-2007, 03:13 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] anyone betting teasers earlier this week would've gotten nyg-7, jax-7.5, and carolina+3... you have a lot to learn [/ QUOTE ] Is this some sort of sick level? However, I did lose the 2 on Jax. I'm sure the fact I didn't just donk two "half wongs" would more than make up for that fact, but whatev. [/ QUOTE ] pop quiz hot-shot, which is worth more after a 6pt tease: +3 -130 or +2.5 -110? how about -7 -120 or -7.5 -110? how about waiting til the last min and lose jax -9 when they're available -7.5 all week? [/ QUOTE ] Since you're obv claiming expert status. If we can assume 50/50 line moves each way... Whats the theoretical gain v loss if they randomly move either direction? I mean that 9 is a pretty crucial point, I'd hate to lose it. PS: Can you FMP to an error again?
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#36
11-25-2007, 03:25 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
I've got no wongs...Pinny tells me so....In pinny I trust [/ QUOTE ] Cmon MT2R, Pinny was in teaser protection mode on a couple of these games all week(Tenn & JAX). If they don't want that bet you should be looking to bet it.
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#37
11-25-2007, 03:31 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] anyone betting teasers earlier this week would've gotten nyg-7, jax-7.5, and carolina+3... you have a lot to learn [/ QUOTE ] Is this some sort of sick level? However, I did lose the 2 on Jax. I'm sure the fact I didn't just donk two "half wongs" would more than make up for that fact, but whatev. [/ QUOTE ] pop quiz hot-shot, which is worth more after a 6pt tease: +3 -130 or +2.5 -110? how about -7 -120 or -7.5 -110? how about waiting til the last min and lose jax -9 when they're available -7.5 all week? [/ QUOTE ] Since you're obv claiming expert status. If we can assume 50/50 line moves each way... Whats the theoretical gain v loss if they randomly move either direction? I mean that 9 is a pretty crucial point, I'd hate to lose it. PS: Can you FMP to an error again? [/ QUOTE ] i have no idea what this means, randomly either way? are you talking about the point spread or the amount of action? if we're talking about amount of action then the expectation is neutral. if you're talking about the point spread obv you lose more moving from +3 -130 to +4 then to +2, however argument is baseless as it will take a lot more action to move it from +3 -130 to +4 then from +3 -130 to +2. in other words, if projection of action movement is 50-50 then you lose NOTHING. b/c the books will NOT move +3 -130 to +4 based on the same amount action that will persuade it to move from +3 -130 to +2. the -9 was a point to demonstrate to you that line movement prediction is important yet irrelevant in this argument.
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#39
11-25-2007, 03:52 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] anyone betting teasers earlier this week would've gotten nyg-7, jax-7.5, and carolina+3... you have a lot to learn [/ QUOTE ] Is this some sort of sick level? However, I did lose the 2 on Jax. I'm sure the fact I didn't just donk two "half wongs" would more than make up for that fact, but whatev. [/ QUOTE ] pop quiz hot-shot, which is worth more after a 6pt tease: +3 -130 or +2.5 -110? how about -7 -120 or -7.5 -110? how about waiting til the last min and lose jax -9 when they're available -7.5 all week? [/ QUOTE ] Since you're obv claiming expert status. If we can assume 50/50 line moves each way... Whats the theoretical gain v loss if they randomly move either direction? I mean that 9 is a pretty crucial point, I'd hate to lose it. PS: Can you FMP to an error again? [/ QUOTE ] i have no idea what this means, randomly either way? are you talking about the point spread or the amount of action? if we're talking about amount of action then the expectation is neutral. if you're talking about the point spread obv you lose more moving from +3 -130 to +4 then to +2, however argument is baseless as it will take a lot more action to move it from +3 -130 to +4 then from +3 -130 to +2. in other words, if projection of action movement is 50-50 then you lose NOTHING. b/c the books will NOT move +3 -130 to +4 based on the same amount action that will persuade it to move from +3 -130 to +2. the -9 was a point to demonstrate to you that line movement prediction is important yet irrelevant in this argument. [/ QUOTE ] So in summation, your feelings are that all teasers should be done whenever you see them without regard for sharpening numbers? Great. What a novel and +EV idea.
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#40
11-25-2007, 04:33 PM
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Re: Wong Teasers, Week 12
thx for sucking Eli
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