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#81
11-04-2007, 05:00 PM
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Re: The Wallet Test
[ QUOTE ]
So if I say most black people are theifs, does that still make me racist? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, because only 43% are. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 
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#82
11-12-2007, 12:27 AM
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Re: The Wallet Test
[ QUOTE ]
Have you ever taken a statistics course? [/ QUOTE ] No. But you don't need to be a statistician to conduct a test such as this. You also don't need to be an expert movie maker to film people stealing wallets. You don't need to be a criminologist to figure out that wallets that were never returned were probably stolen. You don't need to be an anthropologist to tell if a person is a man or woman, young or old, black or white. You don't need to be a statistician to figure out that 43% is over twice as likely as 21%... This in not rocket science or brain surgery - this is careful observation, good record keeping and high-school-level math. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#83
11-12-2007, 12:48 AM
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Re: The Wallet Test
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Have you ever taken a statistics course? [/ QUOTE ] No. But you don't need to be a statistician to conduct a test such as this. You also don't need to be an expert movie maker to film people stealing wallets. You don't need to be a criminologist to figure out that wallets that were never returned were probably stolen. You don't need to be an anthropologist to tell if a person is a man or woman, young or old, black or white. You don't need to be a statistician to figure out that 43% is over twice as likely as 21%... This in not rocket science or brain surgery - this is careful observation, good record keeping and high-school-level math. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] You have just demonstrated your woeful ignorance, my friend. This is not high school level math. Yes, 43% is higher than 21% but you cannot necessarily rely on that figure.
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#85
11-12-2007, 01:01 AM
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Re: The Wallet Test
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Have you ever taken a statistics course? [/ QUOTE ] No. But you don't need to be a statistician to conduct a test such as this. You also don't need to be an expert movie maker to film people stealing wallets. You don't need to be a criminologist to figure out that wallets that were never returned were probably stolen. You don't need to be an anthropologist to tell if a person is a man or woman, young or old, black or white. You don't need to be a statistician to figure out that 43% is over twice as likely as 21%... This in not rocket science or brain surgery - this is careful observation, good record keeping and high-school-level math. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] You are correct in that you do not need to be a statistician to record these figures and put them into percentages. However, you need to have some statistics background to show the results of your test and the comment on the validity of it. This is one of the biggest responsibilities of a statistician. All your website does to account for this is the disclaimer: " Note: It was not the intention of this experiment to make any particular group look bad, reinforce stereotypes nor to further a hidden agenda of any kind. The actions of a few members in a group should not, of course, be used to judge the whole group." Which appears for every group. This is not adequate imo; the casual viewer will skim over the disclaimer and then view the results of the post. I understand you are not attempting to be prejudiced; I'll bet you decided on how to group the data before you collected it. Are you seeking/receiving funding for your test by the way (I don't mean by soliciting here)?
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#86
11-12-2007, 01:49 AM
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Re: The Wallet Test
Please answer honestly.
The situation: You are walking down the street with a wallet containing a modest sum of money, for the sake of this example let's say $250. You will drop the wallet and an unknown person behind you will see you drop it. At that point they pick up the wallet and can either return it to you or keep it. 100% chance they will not get "caught" if they keep it, and 100% chance they know who the rightful owner of the wallet is and can successfully give it back if they so choose. You are allowed to pick characteristics about the unknown person walking behind you, in regards to age, gender, and race (finanical status is purposely omitted). Which charactistics would you select (assume you want to maximize +EV) for the unknown person finding your wallet:
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#87
11-12-2007, 03:01 AM
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Re: The Wallet Test
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Have you ever taken a statistics course? [/ QUOTE ] No. But you don't need to be a statistician to conduct a test such as this. You also don't need to be an expert movie maker to film people stealing wallets. You don't need to be a criminologist to figure out that wallets that were never returned were probably stolen. You don't need to be an anthropologist to tell if a person is a man or woman, young or old, black or white. You don't need to be a statistician to figure out that 43% is over twice as likely as 21%... This in not rocket science or brain surgery - this is careful observation, good record keeping and high-school-level math. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] You have just demonstrated your woeful ignorance, my friend. This is not high school level math. Yes, 43% is higher than 21% but you cannot necessarily rely on that figure. [/ QUOTE ] There is so much more wrong with his 'study' than just his 'analysis' of the data. The design, the collection, the assumptions, everything about it was either wrong, or not specified. Just a few things: He didn't collect all the data at the same location, and didn't record what locations different races/ages were at, or how location affected pick-up rate. He assumes that whoever took the wallet stole it. At some locations, this would make sense (in front of a police station.) Anywhere else, there might not be an obvious place to return it. Certainly different locations would have a profound effect on this. If he had talked to any statistician (or anyone who had even taken a stats course) his study wouldn't have those problems, but its obvious that objectivity was not the purpose here. And of course the sensation of this garbage was enough to get all over the news.
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#88
11-12-2007, 04:21 AM
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Re: The Wallet Test
If I found a wallet, the first thing that would come to my mind was that I was on camera or being watched. Its pretty uncommon to find a wallet lying around imho.
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#90
11-12-2007, 05:37 AM
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Re: The Wallet Test
[ QUOTE ]
$2? If the owner's phone number or a credit card was not in the wallet, I'd just drop it back on the street or wherever I found it. [/ QUOTE ] 100% of broke ass people lose their wallets.
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