Weird hand against Good2cu

[Apathy]

foldfoldfoldfold

[TheWorstPlayer]

dont bet the turn. fold the river. i wouldnt even call preflop, actually.

[ahnuld]

This just confirms my suspicions that its a very easy fold. I beat almost nothing. I called and lost.

[soah]

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dont bet the turn.

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QFT

[Jay.]

turn is BAD.

[KdB]

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I don't get preflop either. Seems to me that by calling and playing OOP your gonna get in all sorts of sticky postflop stuff.
I like a 4 bet shove here pre if you think your ahead.

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I didn't get this play, so i started doing the math. It's below and might be helpfull to others. Imo it's really close. However pushing sends a strong signal to BB.

READ: "Hes playing lag. Reraises me pre a lot, but not more than anyone else"

Let's say you open /w any A, K9o+ any pair, 45s+ KTs+ KJo+.
Around 25%

Let's say his 3bet range is something like: any pair, 78s+, A8s+ A9o+ or something like that.
That's 14% of his possible holdings.

So 'only' 1 out of 7 times he reraises in a blind battle.

It's obvious you should fold 'drawing' hands to his 3bet. Hands like 22/67s are easy folds, because you're OOP and he doesn't need to have a big hand in this position, so the implied odds are not that big.

But you cant start folding everething other than JJ+, AK.
If he 3bets you 14% of the time (or even more) you need to start playing back. In that case big aces go indeed way up in value.

But if you push and he calls your push with JJ+, AQ+ (4,2% of his hands, or 30% of his reraise range) you've only got 25,6% equity.

Let's put things together:

After his reraise the pot is 160$. If you push, he folds 70% and calls with the other 30%.
You push 960$, and win 160$ in 70% of the hands,
if he calls your EV = 512$ - 960$
(512$-960$) * .3 + 160$ * .7 = -22.2$

-22.2$ compared to folding (which is way closer than I thought)

(If he starts folding AQo/AQs your EV= +44.34$)
If he reraises more than 14% your EV will go up more, which is likely if he's really playing LAG.

It's really hard to estimate your EV if you call (which i thougt is standard in this spot), but I see the why pushing is a real option now.

Are my ranges reasonable?

On topic; Why would he ever bluf here with a mediocre hand? I guess he has clubs / TJ/QJ/QT. Easy fold.

[JooWish622]

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dont bet the turn.

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QFT

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what does qft mean?

[KdB]

Just realized that 67s has more equity vs a AQo, JJ+ range. (32.8% instead of 25.6). Should you start pushing those hands a certain %, because of ~0 EV but huge image improvements (both if callt and if not)

[BalugaWhale]

something with a trace of showdown value like... 99?

[ShipIt77]

good2cu plays on party?